Zhang Yaxin, Cai Pingping, Wu Yadong, Yu Ying, Chen Zhicong, Wang Guangdong, Zhang Min, Zheng Weihong
Department of Neurology, Xiamen Humanity Hospital, Fujian Medical University, No. 3777 XianYue Road, Xiamen, 361009, Fujian, China.
Department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine, First Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, 710061, Shanxi, China.
Sci Rep. 2025 Jul 1;15(1):22237. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-07082-7.
Estimated pulse wave velocity (ePWV) has been proposed as a potential predictor of mortality in patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS). This study aimed to evaluate the relationship between ePWV and all-cause mortality in AIS patients. Among 2,416 AIS patients initially screened, 2176 met the inclusion criteria and were included in the final analysis. ePWV was calculated using a validated formula based on age and mean blood pressure. Patients were stratified into high and low ePWV groups using a cut-off value of 12.33 m/s derived from the ROC curve for 360-day mortality. Cox proportional hazards models, adjusted for clinical and laboratory variables, were used to assess the association between ePWV and mortality at 30, 90, 180, and 360 days. Restricted cubic spline (RCS) analysis was performed to explore potential non-linear associations. Predictive performance was evaluated using area under the ROC curve (AUC), and subgroup analyses were conducted across demographic and clinical strata. Higher ePWV was independently associated with increased mortality at all time points, with adjusted hazard ratios of 1.54 (95% CI 1.26-1.90) at 30 days, 1.58 (1.32-1.89) at 90 days, 1.58 (1.33-1.88) at 180 days, and 1.60 (1.36-1.89) at 360 days (all P < 0.001). Kaplan-Meier analysis showed significantly lower survival in the high ePWV group (P < 0.001). RCS analysis suggested a positive linear relationship between ePWV and mortality. ePWV showed modest discriminative power (AUC 0.62-0.63), outperforming MBP but slightly inferior to age. However, the combination of ePWV with the SOFA score improved prognostic accuracy (AUC up to 0.72), outperforming the age + SOFA model at all time points. Elevated ePWV is independently associated with increased risk of mortality in patients with AIS. As a simple, non-invasive indicator of arterial stiffness, ePWV may serve as a valuable tool for risk stratification and early identification of high-risk patients who may benefit from intensified monitoring and management.
估计脉搏波速度(ePWV)已被提出作为急性缺血性卒中(AIS)患者死亡率的潜在预测指标。本研究旨在评估AIS患者中ePWV与全因死亡率之间的关系。在最初筛查的2416例AIS患者中,2176例符合纳入标准并被纳入最终分析。基于年龄和平均血压,使用经过验证的公式计算ePWV。根据360天死亡率的ROC曲线得出的截断值12.33m/s,将患者分为ePWV高分组和低分组。采用Cox比例风险模型,并对临床和实验室变量进行校正,以评估ePWV与30天、90天、180天和360天死亡率之间的关联。进行限制立方样条(RCS)分析以探索潜在的非线性关联。使用ROC曲线下面积(AUC)评估预测性能,并在人口统计学和临床分层中进行亚组分析。较高的ePWV在所有时间点均与死亡率增加独立相关,30天时校正风险比为1.54(95%CI 1.26 - 1.90),90天时为1.58(1.32 - 1.89),180天时为1.58(1.33 - 1.88),360天时为1.60(1.36 - 1.89)(所有P<0.001)。Kaplan-Meier分析显示ePWV高分组的生存率显著较低(P<0.001)。RCS分析表明ePWV与死亡率之间呈正线性关系。ePWV显示出适度的判别能力(AUC 0.62 - 0.63),优于平均血压(MBP)但略逊于年龄。然而,ePWV与序贯器官衰竭评估(SOFA)评分的组合提高了预后准确性(AUC高达0.72),在所有时间点均优于年龄 + SOFA模型。ePWV升高与AIS患者死亡风险增加独立相关。作为动脉僵硬度的一种简单、非侵入性指标,ePWV可作为一种有价值的工具,用于风险分层以及早期识别可能从强化监测和管理中获益的高危患者。
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