Liu Kai, Lin Zhang, Chen Ying, Hong Huashan
Department of Geriatrics, Fujian Key Laboratory of Vascular Aging, Fujian Institute of Geriatrics, Fujian Medical University Union Hospital, Fuzhou, 350001, Fujian, China.
Geriatric Center, Hainan General Hospital, Hainan Affiliated Hospital of Hainan Medical University, Haikou, 570311, Hainan, China.
Sci Rep. 2025 Jul 2;15(1):23026. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-07198-w.
Estimated pulse wave velocity (ePWV) has been proposed as a potential substitute for carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity (cfPWV), serving as an indicator for assessing aortic stiffness. Arterial stiffness has emerged as a potential marker associated with adverse outcomes in various specific diseases, yet its relationship with mortality rates in the general adult population remains unstudied. This study aims to investigate the association between arterial stiffness and both all-cause and cardiovascular mortality among US adults. Data from 48,257 participants aged 20 and older in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) from 1999 to 2018 were analyzed. Mortality details were obtained from the National Death Index (NDI). Restricted cubic spline (RCS) functions were used to visualize the association between estimated pulse wave velocity (ePWV) and mortality risk. Weighted Cox proportional hazards models were employed to assess the independent correlation between ePWV and mortality risk. Time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was conducted to evaluate the predictive ability of ePWV for survival. Further subgroup analyses were performed to validate the robustness of the associations. Participants were stratified into higher (> 10.92) and lower (≤ 10.92) ePWV groups. During a median follow-up of 133.69 ± 94.42 months, 8029 (16.6%) deaths, including 2641 (5.5%) cardiovascular deaths, occurred among the 48,257 participants. The weighted Cox proportional hazards model showed that after comprehensive adjustment for covariates, individuals with higher ePWV had significantly increased risks of all-cause mortality (HR 2.67, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.50-2.84, P < 0.001) and cardiovascular mortality (HR 2.75, 95%CI 2.46-3.07, P < 0.001). RCS regression analysis revealed a nonlinear association between ePWV, a marker of arterial stiffness, and all-cause mortality with an inflection point at 8.267 (P for nonlinear = 0.0001), while a positive linear correlation was observed with cardiovascular mortality (P for nonlinear = 0.889). This association was consistent across subgroups based on age, gender, race, body mass index, education level, marital status, smoking, alcohol consumption, diabetes, and hypertension, with significant interactions observed for all-cause mortality in the hypertension subgroup (P for interaction = 0.012) and for cardiovascular mortality in smoking (P for interaction = 0.032), diabetes (P for interaction < 0.001), and hypertension subgroups (P for interaction = 0.012). The time-dependent ROC curves indicated areas under the curve (AUCs) of 0.73, 0.80, and 0.79 for 1-year, 6-year, and 10-year survival rates, respectively, for all-cause mortality, and 0.85, 0.83, and 0.83 for cardiovascular mortality. Elevated ePWV is independently associated with increased cardiovascular mortality in US adults and exhibits a significant positive correlation with all-cause mortality in US adults beyond an ePWV threshold of 8.267.
估计脉搏波速度(ePWV)已被提议作为颈动脉 - 股动脉脉搏波速度(cfPWV)的潜在替代指标,用作评估主动脉僵硬度的指标。动脉僵硬度已成为与各种特定疾病不良结局相关的潜在标志物,但其与一般成年人群死亡率的关系仍未得到研究。本研究旨在调查美国成年人动脉僵硬度与全因死亡率和心血管死亡率之间的关联。分析了1999年至2018年美国国家健康与营养检查调查(NHANES)中48257名年龄在20岁及以上参与者的数据。死亡细节来自国家死亡指数(NDI)。使用受限立方样条(RCS)函数来可视化估计脉搏波速度(ePWV)与死亡风险之间的关联。采用加权Cox比例风险模型来评估ePWV与死亡风险之间的独立相关性。进行时间依赖性受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线分析以评估ePWV对生存的预测能力。进行进一步的亚组分析以验证关联的稳健性。参与者被分为ePWV较高(>10.92)和较低(≤10.92)两组。在48257名参与者的中位随访133.69±94.42个月期间,发生了8029例(16.6%)死亡,其中包括2641例(5.5%)心血管死亡。加权Cox比例风险模型显示,在对协变量进行全面调整后,ePWV较高的个体全因死亡率风险显著增加(风险比[HR] 2.67,95%置信区间[CI] 2.50 - 2.84,P <0.001),心血管死亡率风险也显著增加(HR 2.75,95%CI 2.46 - 3.07,P <0.001)。RCS回归分析显示,作为动脉僵硬度标志物的ePWV与全因死亡率之间存在非线性关联,拐点为8.267(非线性P = 0.0001),而与心血管死亡率呈正线性相关(非线性P = 0.889)。基于年龄、性别、种族、体重指数、教育水平、婚姻状况、吸烟、饮酒、糖尿病和高血压的亚组中,这种关联是一致的,在高血压亚组中全因死亡率存在显著交互作用(交互作用P = 0.012),在吸烟(交互作用P = 0.032)、糖尿病(交互作用P <0.001)和高血压亚组中心血管死亡率存在显著交互作用(交互作用P = 0.012)。时间依赖性ROC曲线显示,全因死亡率1年、6年和10年生存率的曲线下面积(AUC)分别为0.73、0.80和0.79,心血管死亡率的AUC分别为0.85、0.83和0.83。升高的ePWV与美国成年人心血管死亡率增加独立相关,并且在ePWV阈值超过8.267时与美国成年人全因死亡率呈显著正相关。
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