Chen Keyu, Wang Jinjie, Zhang Zipeng, Xiao Hongzhi, Liu Jingming
College of Geography and Remote Sensing Science, Xinjiang University, No. 777 Huarui Street, Urumqi, 830017, China.
Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang University, Urumqi, 830017, China.
Sci Rep. 2025 Jul 1;15(1):22190. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-06085-8.
The Central Asian area is faced with unprecedented challenges due to the fragility of its ecological environment and under the double pressure of global warming and intensified human activities. As a typical transboundary watershed in Central Asia, the ecological system quality of the Ili-Balkhash Lake Basin (IBLB) is of vital importance to the sustainable development of the whole region. In this study, we constructed the Remote Sensing Ecological Index (RSEI) for the IBLB (2000-2020) using the MODIS dataset on the Google Earth Engine platform and applied Sen's slope and Mann-Kendall (Sen-MK) trend analysis methods to assess RSEI trends. Additionally, geographic detectors and geographically weighted regression models were used to identify and analyze the global and local factors influencing RSEI. The outcome of the study suggests that: (1) The ecological quality of the basin has generally improved, and the proportion of high quality and good areas has risen, but spatial heterogeneity is obvious, and the area around the lake shows a trend of degradation; (2) LST and NDVI were the main natural drivers, and LUI and AWUE were the key human drivers, with significant interactions among the factors; (3) The GWR model further reveals that LST is the main limiting factor of RSEI, and the two are negatively correlated, while there is significant spatial variability in the effects of NDVI, LUI and AWUE on RSEI, with both positive and negative effects. This study lends a scientific basis for revealing the ecological evolution of watersheds in arid zones. The methodological system it constructed can provide a reference for the ecological monitoring and governance practice of transboundary watersheds around the world.
由于生态环境脆弱，且面临全球变暖和人类活动加剧的双重压力，中亚地区正面临前所未有的挑战。作为中亚典型的跨界流域，伊犁-巴尔喀什湖流域（IBLB）的生态系统质量对整个地区的可持续发展至关重要。在本研究中，我们利用谷歌地球引擎平台上的MODIS数据集构建了IBLB（2000 - 2020年）的遥感生态指数（RSEI），并应用森斜率和曼-肯德尔（Sen-MK）趋势分析方法评估RSEI趋势。此外，还使用地理探测器和地理加权回归模型来识别和分析影响RSEI的全球和局部因素。研究结果表明：（1）流域生态质量总体有所改善，高质量和良好区域比例上升，但空间异质性明显，湖泊周边区域呈退化趋势；（2）地表温度（LST）和归一化植被指数（NDVI）是主要自然驱动因素，土地利用强度（LUI）和农业用水效率（AWUE）是关键人类驱动因素，各因素间存在显著交互作用；（3）地理加权回归模型进一步揭示，LST是RSEI的主要限制因素，二者呈负相关，而NDVI、LUI和AWUE对RSEI的影响存在显著空间变异性，有正有负。本研究为揭示干旱区流域生态演变提供了科学依据。构建的方法体系可为全球跨界流域生态监测与治理实践提供参考。
