Wei Xu, Ma Qixin, Chen Xiaoqun
School of Management, Guangxi University for Nationalities, Nanning, 530006, China.
School of Accounting, Dongbei University for Finance and Economics, Dalian, 116012, China.
Sci Rep. 2025 Jul 1;15(1):21731. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-06649-8.
Agriculture plays a pivotal role in global greenhouse gas emissions. This study focuses on the quantitative simulation and validation of the wave convergence patterns of agricultural carbon emission efficiency, aiming to deeply understand the process of collaborative governance between central and surrounding cities within urban agglomerations, thereby achieving stable and sustainable development goals for the carbon emission system. Based on the dynamic DEA model, this paper employs an enhanced common frontier dynamic super-efficiency SBM model to quantitatively evaluate the agricultural carbon emission efficiency of urban agglomerations and their constituent cities. Subsequently, a gravity model is introduced to measure the changes in the joint intensity of agricultural carbon emission efficiency within urban agglomerations, and a wave-like convergence curve function model is employed to validate the proposed regularity. The findings indicate: (1) The agricultural carbon emission efficiency exhibits a fluctuating downward trend, with a distribution depicted by higher efficiencies in the northern and southern regions and lower efficiencies in the rest part. (2) The joint intensity of agricultural carbon emission efficiency tends towards a wave-like increase and exhibits joint threshold effects, with the outcomes for national urban agglomerations significantly surpassing other groups. (3) The evolutionary curves of agricultural carbon emission efficiency in Chinese urban agglomerations essentially show wave-like converging changes over time and in conjunction with urban joint development, with the fitted curves of carbon emission efficiency across different urban agglomerations showing high degrees of similarity.
农业在全球温室气体排放中起着关键作用。本研究聚焦于农业碳排放效率的波动收敛模式的定量模拟与验证，旨在深入理解城市群内部中心城市与周边城市的协同治理过程，从而实现碳排放系统的稳定与可持续发展目标。基于动态DEA模型，本文运用增强型共同前沿动态超效率SBM模型对城市群及其组成城市的农业碳排放效率进行定量评估。随后，引入引力模型来测度城市群内部农业碳排放效率联合强度的变化，并采用波浪状收敛曲线函数模型对所提出的规律性进行验证。研究结果表明：（1）农业碳排放效率呈波动下降趋势，分布表现为北部和南部地区效率较高，其余地区效率较低。（2）农业碳排放效率联合强度呈波浪状上升趋势并呈现联合阈值效应，全国性城市群的结果显著优于其他组。（3）中国城市群农业碳排放效率的演化曲线在时间上以及与城市联合发展相结合的过程中基本呈现出波浪状收敛变化，不同城市群碳排放效率的拟合曲线显示出高度相似性。
