Tran Bao-Linh, Tseng Wei-Chun, Chen Chi-Chung
Department of Applied Economics, National Chung Hsing University, 145 Xingda Rd., South Dist., Taichung City, 402, Taiwan.
Sci Rep. 2025 Jul 2;15(1):23424. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-07405-8.
This study quantifies the projected impacts of climate change on crop yields across temperature rise regimes and climatic zones, using the latest global dataset of site-level process-model simulations of crop responses to climate scenarios. We employed a threshold regression technique to identify and estimate temperature change thresholds and used linear mixed-effects models to assess the climate impacts on crop yields across different levels of temperature rise. The results indicated that warmer temperatures are detrimental to crop yields across countries, with negative impacts exacerbated when temperature increase exceeds threshold values. For instance, for wheat, a 1 °C temperature increase would result in a 6.1% yield loss when the temperature rise is below 2.38 °C; however, when it exceeds 2.38 °C, yield loss would rise to 8.2% per 1 °C warming. Similarly, the loss in rice yields for each °C increase in temperature would increase from 1.1 to 7.1% per °C when the temperature rise surpasses the 3.13 °C threshold. For maize, no threshold effect is found; instead, temperature increase would reduce yields by an average of 4.03% per °C. We also conducted impact assessments by climate zone, categorizing studied sites according to the Köppen climate classification system. We found that crop yields in arid regions are most adversely affected by global warming compared to other zones, while adaptive potential is higher for rice and wheat in temperate zones and for maize in continental zones. This study highlights the existence of threshold effects of temperature rise on crop yields and the varying yield impacts among climate zones, informing effective adaptation strategies to enhance global food security.
本研究利用最新的全球作物对气候情景响应的站点级过程模型模拟数据集，量化了气候变化对不同升温模式和气候区域作物产量的预估影响。我们采用阈值回归技术来识别和估计温度变化阈值，并使用线性混合效应模型来评估不同升温水平下气候对作物产量的影响。结果表明，气温升高对各国作物产量均有不利影响，当温度升高超过阈值时，负面影响会加剧。例如，对于小麦，当升温低于2.38℃时，温度每升高1℃，产量损失6.1%；然而，当超过2.38℃时，每升温1℃，产量损失将升至8.2%。同样，当温度升高超过3.13℃阈值时，水稻产量每升高1℃的损失将从1.1%升至7.1%。对于玉米，未发现阈值效应；相反，温度升高将使产量平均每升高1℃降低4.03%。我们还按气候区进行了影响评估，根据柯本气候分类系统对研究地点进行分类。我们发现，与其他区域相比，干旱地区的作物产量受全球变暖的不利影响最大，而温带地区的水稻和小麦以及大陆地区的玉米具有较高的适应潜力。本研究突出了温度升高对作物产量的阈值效应的存在以及不同气候区域产量影响的差异，为加强全球粮食安全的有效适应策略提供了依据。
