Risk thresholds for soft versus hard cardiovascular disease outcome models for initiating statin therapy among Chinese adults: a cost-utility analysis.

BACKGROUND

Current guidelines for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) primary prevention mostly recommend risk scores that predict risk of non-fatal myocardial infarction, fatal ischemic heart disease (IHD), and fatal or non-fatal ischemic stroke (hard outcomes), ignoring the burden from other non-fatal IHD outcomes. We explored the optimal risk thresholds for statin initiation using non-laboratory-based soft and hard ASCVD outcome models and compared the cost-utility of such models in the Chinese population.

METHODS

We constructed Markov cohort models to estimate the incidence of ASCVD events, costs, and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) over a lifetime from a social perspective. The simulation cohort was constructed using data from the China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB). Input data included cost, utility, statin efficacy, and other parameters were derived from published literature. We used CKB-ASCVD models to predict 10-year risk and different risk thresholds to guide statin initiation. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was estimated as cost per QALY gained. Sensitivity analyses were performed to explore the uncertainty in the models.

RESULTS

The optimal risk threshold was 18% for the soft ASCVD model and 10% for the hard ASCVD model, with ICERs of $7013.48/QALY and $6540.71/QALY, respectively. The optimal thresholds were robust in stratified analyses by region and sex, and one-way sensitivity analyses over a wide range of input parameters. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses showed that these optimal thresholds had around 70% chance of being cost-effective. When analyzed by age group, above optimal thresholds were cost-effective in adults aged 30-59 years but not in those aged 60-75 years. The threshold strategies based on soft ASCVD model were mostly cost-saving compared with those based on hard models to treat the same proportions of the population.

CONCLUSIONS

The risk threshold of 18% for soft ASCVD model and 10% for hard ASCVD model have acceptable cost-utility profiles in the Chinese population. The soft ASCVD model is more cost-effective than the hard model and should be used as a screening tool for ASCVD primary prevention.