Mujcic Redzo, Oswald Andrew J
Warwick Business School, University of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL, United Kingdom.
Department of Economics, University of Warwick and CAGE Centre, Coventry CV4 7AL, United Kingdom.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2025 Jul 8;122(27):e2504419122. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2504419122. Epub 2025 Jul 2.
Humans hate being monitored. Autonomy is prized-including by research scientists. Yet little is known about a fundamental issue in the modern world: What is happening to job autonomy in today's workplaces as people move from youth on to middle age and then on to older ages? It would be natural to believe that individuals in the second half of their careers would be the senior ones with high autonomy. We provide evidence that such a belief is wrong. This study uses longitudinal data on hundreds of thousands of randomly sampled individuals, in three rich countries, who are followed through their working lives (n > 400,000). Workers' trace out a smooth concave parabola, increasing up to midlife, until approximately the surprisingly early age of 40, and then collapsing over the ensuing twenty to 30 y of a person's working life. This is apparently not an illusion. We show that -signified by managerial and supervisory job titles, for example-behave in a matching, hump-shaped way. As a further check, consistent qualitative evidence is given: a survey we ran asking managers about their experiences. We believe this paper's results represent a foundational, essentially unknown, and intrinsically cross-disciplinary puzzle.
人类讨厌被监控。自主性备受珍视——包括科研人员也是如此。然而,对于现代社会中的一个基本问题,我们却知之甚少:随着人们从青年步入中年进而步入老年,当今职场中的工作自主性发生了什么变化?人们很自然地会认为,职业生涯后半段的个人会是自主性较高的资深人士。但我们提供的证据表明这种看法是错误的。本研究使用了来自三个富裕国家的数十万随机抽样个体的纵向数据,跟踪他们的整个工作生涯(n>40万)。员工的自主性呈现出一条平滑的凹抛物线,在中年之前不断上升,直到大约令人惊讶的40岁这个较早年龄,然后在随后的20到30年的工作生涯中逐渐下降。这显然不是一种错觉。我们表明,例如以管理和监督职位头衔为标志,其表现也呈匹配的驼峰状。作为进一步的检验,我们给出了一致的定性证据:我们对经理们进行了一项关于他们经历的调查。我们认为本文的结果代表了一个基础性的、基本上未知的且本质上跨学科的谜题。