Oyanedel Rodrigo, Gelcich Stefan, Milner-Gulland E J, Wilcox Chris
MAR FUTURA, Navidad, Chile.
Instituto Milenio en Socio-Ecología Costera (SECOS), Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile.
NPJ Ocean Sustain. 2025;4(1):34. doi: 10.1038/s44183-025-00134-5. Epub 2025 Jun 21.
Improving detectability (i.e., enforcers' capacity to detect illegal fishing activities) is vital for fisheries management, food security, and livelihoods. Identifying factors linked to higher probabilities of illegal activities and their detection across supply chains is essential for effective interventions. Using a Bayesian Hierarchical Model and a large enforcement dataset from Chile, we evaluated determinants of detectability and violation probability across supply chain actors, species, regulations, and effort predictors. Our findings reveal an overall detectability rate of 7%, varying significantly across supply-chain actors. Notably, those higher in the supply chain, such as processors and restaurants-despite receiving less enforcement effort-show higher detection rates. This study offers insights to enhance detectability and improve enforcement targeting, particularly where budgets are constrained. Our approach complements technological advancements like satellite monitoring and supports strategies to reduce illegal fishing and promote compliance, contributing to better management and sustainability of fisheries in Chile and beyond.
提高可检测性(即执法人员发现非法捕鱼活动的能力)对于渔业管理、粮食安全和生计至关重要。识别与非法活动及其在供应链中被发现的较高概率相关的因素,对于有效干预措施至关重要。利用贝叶斯分层模型和来自智利的大量执法数据集,我们评估了供应链参与者、物种、法规和努力预测因素之间可检测性和违规概率的决定因素。我们的研究结果显示总体可检测率为7%,在供应链参与者之间差异显著。值得注意的是,供应链中较高层级的参与者,如加工商和餐馆——尽管受到的执法力度较小——却有较高的检测率。本研究为提高可检测性和改进执法目标提供了见解,特别是在预算有限的情况下。我们的方法补充了卫星监测等技术进步,并支持减少非法捕鱼和促进合规的策略,有助于智利及其他地区渔业的更好管理和可持续发展。