Preventable Cancers Caused by Infection in Korea From 2015 to 2030.

BACKGROUND

To contribute to evidence-based cancer prevention policies, we conducted a systematic assessment to estimate the burden of infection-related cancers in South Korea. We estimated the population-attributable fraction (PAF) of each cancer attributable to the causally related infectious agents between 2015 and 2030.

METHODS

The relative risks of cancer due to infectious agents were calculated using a meta-analysis of results from large-scale Korean cohort studies combined with results from a systematic review of South Korean studies. We calculated the attributable cancer incidence and mortality in 2015 and 2020 from nationwide cancer statistics, assuming a 15-year latency period, and projected them for 2025 and 2030.

RESULTS

The estimated attributable cancer cases were 28,420 (13.18%) in 2015 and 26,368 (10.70%) in 2020 for all new cancer cases due to infectious agents. Attributable cancer deaths were 11,292 (14.74%) in 2015 and 9,969 (12.15%) in 2020 for all new cancer mortalities. occupied the largest proportion of cancer incidence (5.93%), followed by hepatitis B virus (HBV) (2.45%) and human papillomavirus (HPV) (1.74%), and the first cause of cancer death was HBV (5.24%), followed by (4.62%) and HPV (1.41%) in 2020. The PAFs were predicted to decline to 9.35% (2025) and 8.99% (2030) for incidence, and to 10.18% (2025) and 10.02% (2030) for mortality.

CONCLUSION

Fractions of cancer cases and mortality due to infectious agents are projected to decrease from 2015 to 2030. There should be adequate intervention from authorities to control , HBV, and HPV and to reduce the cancer burden.