Mota Flávio Mariano Machado, Lima-Santos Débora, Kenedy-Siqueira Walisson, Oki Yumi, Fernandes Geraldo Wilson
Departamento de Genética, Ecologia & Evolução, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, 31270-901, Brazil.
Knowledge Center for Biodiversity, Belo Horizonte, 31270-901, Brazil.
Environ Monit Assess. 2025 Jul 8;197(8):879. doi: 10.1007/s10661-025-14196-y.
Changes in temperature and precipitation patterns, along with extreme weather events, have altered natural habitats, contributing to species extinctions and ecosystem fragmentation worldwide. Climate change can exacerbate disturbances and trigger biological invasions that threaten native species. Here, we used ecological niche models to predict the future distribution of five invasive earthworm species (Amynthas corticis, Amynthas gracilis, Dichogaster bolaui, Polypheretima elongata, and Pontoscolex corethrurus) within the Doce River Basin (DRB), Brazil. We also assessed the potential contribution of the Fundão dam collapse to changes in species distributions by using a vegetation index as a proxy for forest cover. We found that, despite being invasive, most species are expected to experience contractions in climate suitable areas, with losses reaching up to 30.2% for P. elongata. Only D. bolaui is predicted to find climate suitable areas across the entire study area in all climate scenarios. The results also indicated that the Fundão collapse may contribute to greater reductions in the average climate suitable area within forested areas, with post-collapse areas approximately 44% smaller than pre-collapse conditions. Nevertheless, the southwestern portion of the DRB is projected to retain suitable climate conditions for all species, indicating a high invasive potential in this region. These findings highlight the need for targeted management strategies to prevent the dominance of invasive species and restore vegetation to buffer against the impacts of climate change and control invasive earthworms. Ecological restoration efforts, alongside the integration of environmental monitoring and ecological modeling, are crucial for mitigating biodiversity loss and enhancing ecosystem resilience to invasion by alien earthworms in the face of climate change.
温度和降水模式的变化，以及极端天气事件，已经改变了自然栖息地，导致全球物种灭绝和生态系统破碎化。气候变化会加剧干扰并引发生物入侵，从而威胁本地物种。在此，我们使用生态位模型来预测巴西多西河盆地（DRB）内五种入侵蚯蚓物种（皮层远盲蚓、微小远盲蚓、博劳双胸蚓、长身多毛蚓和科氏巨蚓）的未来分布。我们还通过使用植被指数作为森林覆盖的替代指标，评估了丰当大坝坍塌对物种分布变化的潜在影响。我们发现，尽管这些物种具有入侵性，但大多数物种预计在气候适宜区域会出现收缩，长身多毛蚓的损失高达30.2%。预计只有博劳双胸蚓在所有气候情景下都能在整个研究区域找到气候适宜区域。结果还表明，丰当大坝坍塌可能导致森林地区平均气候适宜区域的更大幅度减少，坍塌后的区域比坍塌前的条件大约小44%。然而，DRB的西南部预计将为所有物种保留适宜的气候条件，这表明该地区具有很高的入侵潜力。这些发现凸显了制定针对性管理策略的必要性，以防止入侵物种占据主导地位，并恢复植被以缓冲气候变化的影响并控制入侵蚯蚓。生态恢复工作，连同环境监测和生态建模的整合，对于减轻生物多样性损失以及增强生态系统面对气候变化时抵御外来蚯蚓入侵的恢复力至关重要。
