Do Vuong V, Shang Ce, Huang Jidong, Islam Towhidul, Pechacek Terry F, Weaver Scott R
Center for Tobacco Control Research and Education, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, California, USA.
Internal Medicine, The Ohio State University Wexner Medical Center, Columbus, Ohio, USA
BMJ Open. 2025 Jul 8;15(7):e100073. doi: 10.1136/bmjopen-2025-100073.
This study addresses the limited evidence of the impact of product characteristics on demand for and the substitutability of electronic cigarettes (e-cigarettes) or heated tobacco products for combusted cigarettes among people who smoke and have newly begun to use e-cigarettes.
A sample of 318 adults who smoke and recently initiated/reinitiated e-cigarette use participated in an online volumetric choice experiment in 2020-2021 to assess stated preferences for consumption and own and cross-price elasticities of three e-cigarette options (cig-a-like, vape pen or tank, closed pod system), heated tobacco product (IQOS) and their usual brand of cigarettes. Product attributes manipulated were price, flavour, level of harm, how well the product reduces cravings to smoke, and how discretely the product can be used. Multilevel zero-inflated negative binomial models were used to model the purchased quantities.
Cigarettes were preferred over all alternatives. However, demand for cig-a-likes, but not IQOS, increased when cigarette prices were higher. Higher prices for e-cigarettes and IQOS did not increase demand for cigarettes. The odds of buying e-cigarettes/IQOS were higher when their harm was stated as low or unknown versus being similar to cigarettes (ie, very high). Other attributes (including various flavour options) were not significantly associated with demand for e-cigarettes or IQOS.
People who smoke and recently began using e-cigarettes might substitute cig-a-likes for cigarettes when cigarette prices are higher. Policies to increase the cost of combusted cigarettes as well as communicate lower relative harm and low absolute harm of e-cigarettes may facilitate switching behaviour.
本研究针对产品特性对吸烟者以及新开始使用电子烟者对电子烟或加热烟草制品的需求及其对传统卷烟可替代性的影响，提供的证据有限。
2020年至2021年，318名吸烟且最近开始/重新开始使用电子烟的成年人参与了一项在线容量选择实验，以评估对三种电子烟产品（烟弹式电子烟、笔式或罐式电子烟、封闭式烟弹系统）、加热烟草制品（IQOS）及其常用品牌卷烟的消费偏好以及自身和交叉价格弹性。操控的产品属性包括价格、口味、危害程度、产品减少吸烟欲望的程度以及产品使用的隐蔽性。采用多级零膨胀负二项式模型对购买量进行建模。
所有替代品中，卷烟最受青睐。然而，卷烟价格较高时，烟弹式电子烟的需求增加，IQOS的需求未增加。电子烟和IQOS价格上涨并未增加卷烟需求。当电子烟/IQOS被宣称危害低或未知而非与卷烟相似（即危害非常高）时，购买它们的几率更高。其他属性（包括各种口味选项）与电子烟或IQOS的需求无显著关联。
吸烟且最近开始使用电子烟的人在卷烟价格较高时可能会用烟弹式电子烟替代卷烟。提高传统卷烟成本以及宣传电子烟相对危害较低和绝对危害较小的政策可能会促进这种转变行为。
