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塞尔维亚中部喉癌发病率和死亡率的长期趋势(1999 - 2023年):连接点回归分析

Long-Term Trends in Laryngeal Cancer Incidence and Mortality in Central Serbia (1999-2023): A Joinpoint Regression Analysis.

作者信息

Nešić Vladimir, Krstić Nešić Dragana, Šipetić Grujičić Sandra, Bukurov Bojana, Miljuš Dragan, Živković Perišić Snežana, Nikolić Aleksandra

机构信息

Faculty of Medicine, University of Belgrade, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia.

Clinic of Otorhinolaryngology and Maxillofacial Surgery, University Clinical Centre of Serbia, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia.

出版信息

Healthcare (Basel). 2025 Jul 7;13(13):1633. doi: 10.3390/healthcare13131633.

DOI:10.3390/healthcare13131633
PMID:40648657
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC12249280/
Abstract

Laryngeal cancer (LC) accounts for 1-3% of all malignant neoplasms. The aim of this study was to analyze temporal trends in the incidence and mortality of LC in Central Serbia over a 25-year period (1999-2023). Data on newly diagnosed cases and deaths, stratified by sex and age group, were obtained from the Serbian Cancer Registry. Crude, age-specific, and age-standardized incidence and mortality rates were calculated. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to estimate average annual percent changes (AAPCs) and assess their statistical significance. The average annual age-standardized incidence rate (ASR-W) was 11.1 per 100,000 in men and 1.4 in women, with corresponding mortality rates of 5.4 and 0.5, respectively. The highest incidence was observed in the 60-69 age group for both sexes (61.1/100,000 in men; 7.4/100,000 in women), while the highest mortality was recorded in individuals aged ≥70 (35.7/100,000 in men; 3.8/100,000 in women). A statistically significant annual decline among men was observed in both incidence (ASR-W: -0.7%) and mortality (ASR-W: -2.0%). In contrast, trends among women were not statistically significant, indicating overall stability. Although the Cancer Registry in Serbia faces limitations primarily due to data quality issues, it is a key tool for understanding LC trends, guiding health policies, and effectively allocating resources. Given the substantially higher burden among men, it is essential to strengthen tobacco and alcohol control, improve occupational safety, and promote early detection and timely treatment to reduce the disease burden.

摘要

喉癌(LC)占所有恶性肿瘤的1%-3%。本研究的目的是分析塞尔维亚中部地区25年期间(1999-2023年)喉癌发病率和死亡率的时间趋势。从塞尔维亚癌症登记处获取了按性别和年龄组分层的新诊断病例和死亡数据。计算了粗发病率、年龄别发病率和年龄标准化发病率以及死亡率。采用Joinpoint回归分析来估计平均年度百分比变化(AAPC)并评估其统计学意义。男性的平均年度年龄标准化发病率(ASR-W)为每10万人11.1例,女性为1.4例,相应的死亡率分别为5.4和0.5。男女在60-69岁年龄组的发病率最高(男性为61.1/10万;女性为7.4/10万),而≥70岁人群的死亡率最高(男性为35.7/10万;女性为3.8/10万)。男性的发病率(ASR-W:-0.7%)和死亡率(ASR-W:-2.0%)均出现了具有统计学意义的年度下降。相比之下,女性的趋势无统计学意义,表明总体稳定。尽管塞尔维亚癌症登记处主要由于数据质量问题存在局限性,但它是了解喉癌趋势、指导卫生政策和有效分配资源的关键工具。鉴于男性的疾病负担显著更高,加强烟草和酒精控制、改善职业安全以及促进早期发现和及时治疗以减轻疾病负担至关重要。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/c7be/12249280/d5265b651ef7/healthcare-13-01633-g002a.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/c7be/12249280/895f7ccd4e42/healthcare-13-01633-g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/c7be/12249280/d5265b651ef7/healthcare-13-01633-g002a.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/c7be/12249280/895f7ccd4e42/healthcare-13-01633-g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/c7be/12249280/d5265b651ef7/healthcare-13-01633-g002a.jpg

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本文引用的文献

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Non-squamous Cancers of the Larynx.喉非鳞状细胞癌。
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