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基于LNR和LODDS的预测模型在接受新辅助治疗的非老年局部晚期直肠癌患者预后评估中的比较

Comparison of LNR- and LODDS-based predictive models for prognosis in non-elderly patients with locally advanced rectal cancer undergoing neoadjuvant therapy.

作者信息

Tao Wei, Cheng Yuxi, Wang Peng, Wen Hong, Xiao Weidong

机构信息

Department of General Surgery, Xinqiao Hospital, Army Medical University, No. 183 Xinqiao Road, Chongqing, 400037, China.

Department of General Surgery, Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, 200032, China.

出版信息

Int J Colorectal Dis. 2025 Jul 12;40(1):157. doi: 10.1007/s00384-025-04942-6.


DOI:10.1007/s00384-025-04942-6
PMID:40650744
Abstract

PURPOSE: The purpose of this study was to comprehensively assess the efficacy of lymph node ratio (LNR) and log odds of positive lymph nodes (LODDS) in predicting survival outcomes in non-elderly locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) patients treated with neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (NCRT). METHODS: The 1643 non-elderly LARC patients undergoing NCRT between 2010 and 2015 were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database and were randomly assigned at a ratio of 7:3. We used Cox regression models to identify independent prognostic factors, then constructed nomogram models to predict cancer-specific survival (CSS) and overall survival (OS). The relative weight in nomogram models, receiver operating characteristic (ROC), area under the curve (AUC), concordance index (C-index), calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were performed to evaluate and compare the predictive performance between LNR and LODDS. RESULTS: The distribution of LNR and LODDS showed that LODDS exhibited a more detailed stratification when LNR was equal to the extreme value. In predicting CSS, the LNR (hazard ratio (HR), 1.987; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.375-2.872) and LODDS (HR, 1.568; 95% CI, 1.154-2.131) were independent risk factors in corresponding nomogram models. Regarding OS, the LODDS (HR, 1.387; 95% CI, 1.060-1.816) showed an independent predictive value. All evaluation methods confirmed the reliability of both models. Although the LNR-based model showed better performance for short-term CSS and the LODDS-based model demonstrated slightly better prediction for long-term CSS and OS, these two models showed largely comparable predictive ability. CONCLUSIONS: The LNR and LODDS can provide complementary prognostic value in survival prediction, offering clinicians a comprehensive basis for clinical decision-making.

摘要

目的:本研究旨在全面评估淋巴结比率(LNR)和阳性淋巴结对数优势比(LODDS)在预测接受新辅助放化疗(NCRT)的非老年局部晚期直肠癌(LARC)患者生存结局方面的疗效。 方法:从监测、流行病学和最终结果(SEER)数据库中提取2010年至2015年间接受NCRT的1643例非老年LARC患者,并按7:3的比例随机分配。我们使用Cox回归模型确定独立预后因素,然后构建列线图模型以预测癌症特异性生存(CSS)和总生存(OS)。进行列线图模型中的相对权重、受试者操作特征(ROC)、曲线下面积(AUC)、一致性指数(C-index)、校准曲线和决策曲线分析(DCA),以评估和比较LNR和LODDS之间的预测性能。 结果:LNR和LODDS的分布表明,当LNR等于极值时,LODDS表现出更详细的分层。在预测CSS时,LNR(风险比(HR),1.987;95%置信区间(CI),1.375 - 2.872)和LODDS(HR,1.568;95% CI,1.154 - 2.131)是相应列线图模型中的独立危险因素。关于OS,LODDS(HR,1.387;95% CI,1.060 - 1.816)显示出独立的预测价值。所有评估方法均证实了这两种模型的可靠性。尽管基于LNR的模型在短期CSS方面表现更好,基于LODDS的模型在长期CSS和OS方面的预测略好,但这两种模型的预测能力在很大程度上相当。 结论:LNR和LODDS在生存预测中可提供互补的预后价值,为临床医生提供全面的临床决策依据。

相似文献

[1]
Comparison of LNR- and LODDS-based predictive models for prognosis in non-elderly patients with locally advanced rectal cancer undergoing neoadjuvant therapy.

Int J Colorectal Dis. 2025-7-12

[2]
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[3]
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[4]
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[5]
[Development of a nomogram for predicting pathological complete response after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer].

Zhonghua Wei Chang Wai Ke Za Zhi. 2025-3-25

[6]
Development and validation of nomograms for predicting survival of locally advanced rectosigmoid junction cancer patients: a SEER database analysis.

Transl Cancer Res. 2025-5-30

[7]
Neoadjuvant rectal-tumor regression grade combined score as surrogate endpoint for disease-free survival in locally advanced rectal cancer patients after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy.

Oncologist. 2025-6-4

[8]
Are Current Survival Prediction Tools Useful When Treating Subsequent Skeletal-related Events From Bone Metastases?

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[9]
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Medicine (Baltimore). 2025-6-13

[10]
Dynamic nomogram for predicting the overall survival and cancer-specific survival of patients with gastrointestinal neuroendocrine tumor: a SEER-based retrospective cohort study and external validation.

Front Oncol. 2025-6-4

本文引用的文献

[1]
Comparison of the efficacy of neoadjuvant chemotherapy and neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy in locally advanced rectal cancer patients: meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

Int J Surg. 2025-3-1

[2]
Lymph Node Yield and Long-Term Mortality Risk in Patients with Colon Cancer: A 20-Year Follow-Up National Study.

Ann Surg Oncol. 2025-2

[3]
Prognostic impact of log odds of positive lymph nodes (LODDS) in the stratification of patients with rectal cancer.

Cir Esp (Engl Ed). 2024-12

[4]
Expression of Types I and III Collagens and Ultrastructure of the Extracellular Matrix in Rectal Adenocarcinoma of Different Differentiation Degree after Neoadjuvant Radiation Therapy.

Bull Exp Biol Med. 2024-9

[5]
Economic Evaluation of 'Watch and Wait' Following Neoadjuvant Therapy in Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer: A Systematic Review.

Ann Surg Oncol. 2025-1

[6]
NCCN Guidelines® Insights: Rectal Cancer, Version 3.2024.

J Natl Compr Canc Netw. 2024-8

[7]
Nutritional Status Indicators Predict Tolerability to Adjuvant Chemotherapy in Patients with Stage II/III Rectal Cancer Undergoing Neoadjuvant Chemoradiotherapy.

Digestion. 2024

[8]
Obesity and overweight are associated with worse survival in early-onset colorectal cancer.

Surgery. 2024-8

[9]
A Prognostic Model Based on the Log Odds Ratio of Positive Lymph Nodes Predicts Prognosis of Patients with Rectal Cancer.

J Gastrointest Cancer. 2024-9

[10]
Global cancer statistics 2022: GLOBOCAN estimates of incidence and mortality worldwide for 36 cancers in 185 countries.

CA Cancer J Clin. 2024

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