Tao Wei, Cheng Yuxi, Wang Peng, Wen Hong, Xiao Weidong
Department of General Surgery, Xinqiao Hospital, Army Medical University, No. 183 Xinqiao Road, Chongqing, 400037, China.
Department of General Surgery, Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, 200032, China.
Int J Colorectal Dis. 2025 Jul 12;40(1):157. doi: 10.1007/s00384-025-04942-6.
PURPOSE: The purpose of this study was to comprehensively assess the efficacy of lymph node ratio (LNR) and log odds of positive lymph nodes (LODDS) in predicting survival outcomes in non-elderly locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) patients treated with neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (NCRT). METHODS: The 1643 non-elderly LARC patients undergoing NCRT between 2010 and 2015 were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database and were randomly assigned at a ratio of 7:3. We used Cox regression models to identify independent prognostic factors, then constructed nomogram models to predict cancer-specific survival (CSS) and overall survival (OS). The relative weight in nomogram models, receiver operating characteristic (ROC), area under the curve (AUC), concordance index (C-index), calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were performed to evaluate and compare the predictive performance between LNR and LODDS. RESULTS: The distribution of LNR and LODDS showed that LODDS exhibited a more detailed stratification when LNR was equal to the extreme value. In predicting CSS, the LNR (hazard ratio (HR), 1.987; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.375-2.872) and LODDS (HR, 1.568; 95% CI, 1.154-2.131) were independent risk factors in corresponding nomogram models. Regarding OS, the LODDS (HR, 1.387; 95% CI, 1.060-1.816) showed an independent predictive value. All evaluation methods confirmed the reliability of both models. Although the LNR-based model showed better performance for short-term CSS and the LODDS-based model demonstrated slightly better prediction for long-term CSS and OS, these two models showed largely comparable predictive ability. CONCLUSIONS: The LNR and LODDS can provide complementary prognostic value in survival prediction, offering clinicians a comprehensive basis for clinical decision-making.
目的:本研究旨在全面评估淋巴结比率(LNR)和阳性淋巴结对数优势比(LODDS)在预测接受新辅助放化疗(NCRT)的非老年局部晚期直肠癌(LARC)患者生存结局方面的疗效。 方法:从监测、流行病学和最终结果(SEER)数据库中提取2010年至2015年间接受NCRT的1643例非老年LARC患者,并按7:3的比例随机分配。我们使用Cox回归模型确定独立预后因素,然后构建列线图模型以预测癌症特异性生存(CSS)和总生存(OS)。进行列线图模型中的相对权重、受试者操作特征(ROC)、曲线下面积(AUC)、一致性指数(C-index)、校准曲线和决策曲线分析(DCA),以评估和比较LNR和LODDS之间的预测性能。 结果:LNR和LODDS的分布表明,当LNR等于极值时,LODDS表现出更详细的分层。在预测CSS时,LNR(风险比(HR),1.987;95%置信区间(CI),1.375 - 2.872)和LODDS(HR,1.568;95% CI,1.154 - 2.131)是相应列线图模型中的独立危险因素。关于OS,LODDS(HR,1.387;95% CI,1.060 - 1.816)显示出独立的预测价值。所有评估方法均证实了这两种模型的可靠性。尽管基于LNR的模型在短期CSS方面表现更好,基于LODDS的模型在长期CSS和OS方面的预测略好,但这两种模型的预测能力在很大程度上相当。 结论:LNR和LODDS在生存预测中可提供互补的预后价值,为临床医生提供全面的临床决策依据。
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