Jang Sung Joon, de la Rosa Pedro A, Padgett R Noah, Bradshaw Matt, VanderWeele Tyler J, Johnson Byron R
Institute for Studies of Religion, Baylor University, Waco, TX, USA.
School of Public Policy, Pepperdine University, Malibu, CA, USA.
Commun Med (Lond). 2025 Jul 12;5(1):292. doi: 10.1038/s43856-025-01005-3.
BACKGROUND: Prior research on childhood predictors of cigarette smoking tends to focus on the prevalence rather than the quantity of smoking and rarely examined these predictors separately for smokers. Also scarce is cross-national research synthesizing the effects of childhood predictors. METHODS: Using survey data from the Global Flourishing Study of 202,898 adults, weighted to be nationally representative of populations in 21 countries and one territory, we created continuous and binary measures of daily cigarette consumption in adulthood. The binary measure of daily smoking was regressed on childhood and demographic variables for the total sample, and the continuous measure was analyzed for the sample of smokers. RESULTS: Random effects meta-analysis provides evidence that childhood maternal and paternal relationship quality (both total and smoker samples), religious service attendance (smoker sample), and being foreign-born (both samples) predict a lower likelihood of adult smoking, whereas being raised by a divorced parent (total sample), having been abused and/or an outsider in the family (both samples), and poor health growing up (both samples) predict a higher likelihood. Although effects are generally weak and mixed in some cases, their direction and strength tend to be consistent between the two samples as well as alternative measures of smoking with some exceptions. Overall, our findings are moderately robust against potential unmeasured confounding, while the effect sizes vary across countries. CONCLUSIONS: The present study offers an important new set of global findings based on a large-scale cross-national study of daily cigarette smoking and country-specific variations.
背景:先前关于儿童期吸烟预测因素的研究往往侧重于吸烟的流行率而非吸烟量,并且很少针对吸烟者分别研究这些预测因素。此外,综合儿童期预测因素影响的跨国研究也很匮乏。 方法:我们使用了来自全球繁荣研究的202,898名成年人的调查数据,这些数据经过加权处理,以代表21个国家和一个地区的全国人口。我们创建了成年期每日吸烟量的连续和二元测量指标。对总样本的儿童期和人口统计学变量进行每日吸烟二元测量指标的回归分析,并对吸烟者样本进行连续测量指标的分析。 结果:随机效应荟萃分析提供的证据表明,儿童期父母关系质量(总样本和吸烟者样本)、参加宗教活动(吸烟者样本)以及出生在国外(两个样本)预示着成年吸烟的可能性较低,而由离异父母抚养长大(总样本)、在家庭中曾遭受虐待和/或被视为外人(两个样本)以及成长过程中健康状况不佳(两个样本)预示着成年吸烟的可能性较高。尽管这些影响通常较弱且在某些情况下相互矛盾,但在两个样本之间以及吸烟的替代测量指标之间,其方向和强度往往是一致的,不过也有一些例外。总体而言,我们的研究结果在一定程度上对潜在的未测量混杂因素具有稳健性,而效应大小在不同国家有所不同。 结论:本研究基于对每日吸烟情况的大规模跨国研究以及特定国家的差异,提供了一组重要的新的全球研究结果。
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