Xu J K, Guo H, Wang Z Y, Zhang Y M, Ba X R, Zhou S, Wang Y, Meng L L, Zhang Z, Ren X Y, Xia Y H, Li J X, Xu R, Wang L T, Wang J H, Ma H
Department of Imaging, Yantai Yuhuangding Hospital Affiliated to Qingdao University, Yantai 264000, China.
Department of Imaging, Yantaishan Hospital, Yantai 264003, China.
Zhonghua Yi Xue Za Zhi. 2025 Jul 15;105(26):2195-2202. doi: 10.3760/cma.j.cn112137-20250226-00460.
To investigate the value of CT-based tumor and peritumoral radiomics in predicting the World Health Organization/International Society of Urological Pathology (WHO/ISUP) grading for non-metastatic clear cell renal cell carcinoma (ccRCC). A total of 503 patients with non-metastatic ccRCC were retrospectively enrolled from 7 tertiary hospitals between February 2017 and December 2023. Patients from 4 hospitals within Shandong Province were divided into a training set and an internal validation set in a 7∶3 ratio, while patients from 3 hospitals outside Shandong Province constituted the external validation set. Regions of interest (ROI) were manually delineated slice-by-slice along the tumor margin on contrast-enhanced CT images. Peritumoral regions were obtained by expanding 10 mm outward from the tumor boundary. Key radiomics features were selected using Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) regression with five-fold cross-validation to build tumor models and peritumoral models for predicting the WHO/ISUP grading. Univariate logistic regression was used to screen clinical factors associated with the WHO/ISUP grading, which was included to construct a combined predictive model together with tumor and peritumoral features. The predictive performance of the models for WHO/ISUP grading was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, and the Youden index and optimal cutoff value were calculated for risk stratification. Calibration curves were used to validate model performance, and decision curve analysis (DCA) was employed to evaluate the clinical value of the models. The median age [(,)] of the 503 patients was 59.0 (52.0, 66.0) years, with 335 males and 168 females. Univariate logistic regression analysis showed there was a statistically significance in age between low and high WHO/ISUP grades (=0.043). The AUC of the tumor model and peritumoral model in the internal validation set were 0.744 (95%: 0.700-0.788) and 0.742 (95%: 0.709-0.774), respectively. In the external validation set, the AUC of the tumor model and peritumoral model were 0.685 (95%: 0.651-0.720) and 0.655 (95%: 0.628-0.683), respectively. The combined model demonstrated the best predictive performance in both internal and external validation sets, with AUC of 0.760 (95%: 0.721-0.800) and 0.706 (95%: 0.675-0.737), respectively. Using the Youden index calculated from the ROC curve from the combined model, the optimal cutoff value was 0.504 for risk stratification, where 190 cases were classified as low-grade and 313 as high-grade, achieving a concordance rate of 0.718 (361/503) with the WHO/ISUP grading. Calibration curve tests indicated good fit for the combined model (internal validation set: =0.932; external validation set: =0.404). DCA showed that the combined model provided favorable clinical net benefit within the threshold probability range of 0.2-0.8. The combined model incorporating age, CT-based tumor features, and peritumoral features demonstrates good performance in predicting the WHO/ISUP grading for patients with non-metastatic ccRCC.
探讨基于CT的肿瘤及瘤周影像组学在预测非转移性透明细胞肾细胞癌(ccRCC)世界卫生组织/国际泌尿病理学会(WHO/ISUP)分级中的价值。2017年2月至2023年12月期间,从7家三级医院回顾性纳入503例非转移性ccRCC患者。将山东省内4家医院的患者按7∶3的比例分为训练集和内部验证集,山东省外3家医院的患者组成外部验证集。在增强CT图像上沿肿瘤边缘逐片手动勾画感兴趣区(ROI)。瘤周区域通过从肿瘤边界向外扩展10 mm获得。使用最小绝对收缩和选择算子(LASSO)回归及五折交叉验证选择关键影像组学特征,构建预测WHO/ISUP分级的肿瘤模型和瘤周模型。采用单因素逻辑回归筛选与WHO/ISUP分级相关的临床因素,并将其纳入与肿瘤及瘤周特征一起构建联合预测模型。使用受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线评估模型对WHO/ISUP分级的预测性能,并计算约登指数和最佳截断值进行风险分层。校准曲线用于验证模型性能,决策曲线分析(DCA)用于评估模型的临床价值。503例患者的中位年龄为59.0(52.0,66.0)岁,男性335例,女性168例。单因素逻辑回归分析显示,WHO/ISUP低级别和高级别之间年龄差异有统计学意义(P = 0.043)。内部验证集中肿瘤模型和瘤周模型的AUC分别为0.744(95%CI:0.700 - 0.788)和0.742(95%CI:0.709 - 0.774)。在外部验证集中,肿瘤模型和瘤周模型的AUC分别为0.685(95%CI:0.651 - 0.720)和0.655(95%CI:0.628 - 0.683)。联合模型在内部和外部验证集中均表现出最佳预测性能,AUC分别为0.760(95%CI:0.721 - 0.800)和0.706(95%CI:0.675 - 0.737)。根据联合模型的ROC曲线计算的约登指数,风险分层的最佳截断值为0.504,其中190例被分类为低级别,313例为高级别,与WHO/ISUP分级的一致性率为0.718(361/503)。校准曲线测试表明联合模型拟合良好(内部验证集:P = 0.932;外部验证集:P = 0.404)。DCA显示,联合模型在0.2 - 0.8的阈值概率范围内提供了良好的临床净效益。纳入年龄、基于CT的肿瘤特征和瘤周特征的联合模型在预测非转移性ccRCC患者的WHO/ISUP分级方面表现良好。