Coleman Margaret E
Coleman Scientific Consulting, Groton, New York, USA.
Risk Anal. 2025 Oct;45(10):2939-2955. doi: 10.1111/risa.70077. Epub 2025 Jul 15.
Transmission of influenza A H5N1, commonly known as avian influenza or bird flu, from wild birds to cows on 1073 large US dairy farms in 17 states, and from cows to 41 dairy workers in five states, has raised concerns about limited evidence for transmission routes. Factors other than scientific evidence, particularly psychological, social, cultural, and political factors influencing different worldviews, support highly polarized risk perceptions about H5N1 in dairy cows, workers, and consumers. Of particular concern is the lack of scientific evidence to support federal warnings about the hypothesis that influenza transmits by the oral route to raw milk consumers. This review focuses on experimental evidence of disease transmission from 44 H5N1 inoculation studies conducted in primates, ferrets, cows, mice, cats, and dogs. Serious errors in extrapolation are apparent in the treatment of evidence for H5N1 in the media and some journal papers that unintentionally or intentionally amplify risk. Considerations of knowledge gaps and formal methods to bridge the gaps are introduced to motivate future risk analysis and facilitate building a coherent basis of knowledge to support development of rigorous evidence-based policies and risk messaging for H5N1.
甲型H5N1流感（通常称为禽流感或鸟流感）在17个州的1073个美国大型奶牛场中从野生鸟类传播到奶牛身上，并在五个州从奶牛传播到41名奶农身上，这引发了人们对传播途径证据有限的担忧。除科学证据外，其他因素，特别是影响不同世界观的心理、社会、文化和政治因素，导致了对奶牛、工人和消费者中H5N1风险认知的高度两极分化。特别令人担忧的是，缺乏科学证据支持联邦政府关于流感通过口腔途径传播给生奶消费者这一假设的警告。本综述重点关注在灵长类动物、雪貂、奶牛、小鼠、猫和狗身上进行的44项H5N1接种研究中疾病传播的实验证据。在媒体和一些期刊论文对H5N1证据的处理中，明显存在严重的外推错误，这些错误无意或有意地放大了风险。文中介绍了对知识空白的思考以及弥合这些空白的正式方法，以推动未来的风险分析，并促进建立一个连贯的知识基础，以支持制定严格的基于证据的政策和H5N1风险信息。
