Zhou Qiong, Huang Zhe, Zeng Lining, Xu Jun
College of Public Administration and Law, Hunan Agricultural University, Changsha, Hunan, China.
College of Business Administration, Hunan University of Finance and Economics, Changsha, Hunan, China.
PLoS One. 2025 Jul 17;20(7):e0325848. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0325848. eCollection 2025.
Over the past few decades, China's economic growth and urbanization have driven a significant migration of rural laborers to cities. Recently, however, an increasing number of migrant workers have chosen to return to their hometowns for employment opportunities. Understanding the factors influencing this return migration is crucial but challenging due to the complexity and diversity of these factors and their intricate interrelationships. Moreover, existing research on migrant workers' return lacks a systematic theoretical framework and comprehensive empirical analysis. To address these gaps, our study utilizes the "Push-Pull Theory" from migration theory to develop a comprehensive model. This model investigates how perceived benefits, trust, costs, and both personal and government support affect migrant workers' willingness to return. We employ structural equation modeling (SEM) for empirical analysis, revealing that perceived benefits, trust, and costs significantly influence migrant workers' perception of return support. This perception, in turn, enhances their willingness to return. Additionally, our findings show that government support positively moderates the relationship between perceived benefits and costs with return support. However, it does not significantly affect the relationship between perceived trust and support, indicating that policy incentives alone may not sufficiently build trust in hometowns. Furthermore, emotional factors-such as family and place attachment, community involvement, and quality of life in hometowns-indirectly influence the decision to return by shaping perceived benefits, trust, and costs. This study advances the application of Push-Pull Theory by integrating economic factors with emotional bonds in the context of return migration. It provides novel insights into how both economic incentives and emotional ties drive migrant workers' decisions to return, offering a more nuanced understanding of migration dynamics in China.
在过去几十年里，中国的经济增长和城市化推动了大量农村劳动力向城市迁移。然而，近年来，越来越多的农民工选择返回家乡寻找就业机会。由于影响返乡迁移的因素复杂多样且相互关系错综复杂，了解这些因素至关重要但也具有挑战性。此外，现有的关于农民工返乡的研究缺乏系统的理论框架和全面的实证分析。为了填补这些空白，我们的研究运用迁移理论中的“推 - 拉理论”构建了一个综合模型。该模型研究了感知利益、信任、成本以及个人和政府支持如何影响农民工的返乡意愿。我们采用结构方程模型（SEM）进行实证分析，结果表明感知利益、信任和成本显著影响农民工对返乡支持的认知。这种认知反过来又增强了他们的返乡意愿。此外我们的研究结果表明，政府支持正向调节感知利益和成本与返乡支持之间的关系。然而，它对感知信任与支持之间的关系没有显著影响，这表明仅靠政策激励可能不足以在故乡建立信任。此外，情感因素，如家庭和地方依恋、社区参与以及家乡的生活质量，通过塑造感知利益、信任和成本，间接影响返乡决策。本研究通过在返乡迁移背景下将经济因素与情感纽带相结合，推进了推 - 拉理论的应用。它为经济激励和情感纽带如何驱动农民工的返乡决策提供了新的见解，对中国的迁移动态有了更细致入微的理解。
