Cheng Qu, Wang Xinqiang, Li Qi, Yu Hailan, Wang Xiaolu, Lv Chenlong, Tian Junhua, Chen Banghua, Peng Zhihang, Fang Liqun, Liu Wei, Yang Yang, Purse Bethan V
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, Hubei, China.
Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing, China.
PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2025 Jul 17;19(7):e0013304. doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0013304. eCollection 2025 Jul.
Severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS) is a tick-borne emerging infectious disease with a reported mortality rate of up to 30% in hospitalized patients. The causative agent, SFTS virus (SFTSV) is maintained in nature through a transmission cycle involving animal hosts and ticks. Therefore, effective control of SFTS in nature environments necessitates a comprehensive understanding of the tick-host circulation patterns that sustain viral persistence. We developed and calibrated mathematical models using seroprevalence survey data collected across China to assess the relative contributions of diverse domestic and wildlife host species to transmission, their determinants, and the effectiveness of various interventions. Our analysis identified poultry, previously unrecognized, as the most important species across the majority of survey sites, followed by goat/sheep, cattle, and rodents. These rankings remained robust even when parameter values were perturbed or certain host species were omitted from the survey. Across all sites, increasing tick mortality rate [Formula: see text] and reducing transovarial transmission efficiency [Formula: see text] consistently ranked among the top five interventions that led to the most significant reduction in the overall [Formula: see text]. Understanding the relative host contributions is crucial for developing interventions. Our simulation results indicated that halving the contact rate of the most important species with ticks could yield a 25-fold greater reduction in transmission intensity compared to halving that of the second most important species.
严重发热伴血小板减少综合征（SFTS）是一种由蜱传播的新发传染病，据报道，住院患者的死亡率高达30%。病原体SFTS病毒（SFTSV）在自然界中通过涉及动物宿主和蜱的传播循环得以维持。因此，要在自然环境中有效控制SFTS，就必须全面了解维持病毒持续存在的蜱-宿主循环模式。我们利用在中国各地收集的血清学流行率调查数据，开发并校准了数学模型，以评估不同家养和野生动物宿主物种对传播的相对贡献、其决定因素以及各种干预措施的有效性。我们的分析确定，此前未被认识的家禽是大多数调查地点中最重要的物种，其次是山羊/绵羊、牛和啮齿动物。即使参数值受到扰动或某些宿主物种被排除在调查之外，这些排名依然稳固。在所有地点，提高蜱的死亡率[公式：见正文]和降低经卵传播效率[公式：见正文]一直位列导致总体[公式：见正文]显著降低的前五项干预措施之中。了解宿主的相对贡献对于制定干预措施至关重要。我们的模拟结果表明，将最重要物种与蜱的接触率减半，与将第二重要物种的接触率减半相比，传播强度的降低幅度可能大25倍。
