Xie Yingying, Thammavong Hanna T, Turner Allison L, Turner Bianca I, Park Daniel S
Department of Biological Sciences, Northern Kentucky University, Highland Heights, KY, 41099, USA.
Department of Biological Sciences, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN, 47906, USA.
New Phytol. 2025 Oct;248(1):354-369. doi: 10.1111/nph.70373. Epub 2025 Jul 18.
Potential and realized climate change-driven phenological mismatches have been reported across a variety of pairwise species' interactions. However, species often engage in more than one type of temporally structured interaction - therefore, the consequences of phenological shifts must be evaluated in this context. Synthesizing data from natural history collections, community science initiatives, and remote-sensing platforms, we analyzed the phenology of the flowering of an understory spring ephemeral species, the emergence of its specialist pollinator, and the closure of the canopy above. We determined how variation in phenological responses to climate across these interacting guilds impacts the potential pollination window of the spring ephemerals. We demonstrate that phenological responses to climate change can vary greatly among the three guilds across their interacting range. The potential pollination window was predicted to undergo divergent shifts among ecoregions across the landscape in the near future, which can impact the fitness and reproductive success of both flowers and pollinators. Our study represents a first step toward integrating phenological knowledge across multiple interacting guilds. Expanding such efforts will be critical to improving our ability to predict how ecosystems, communities, and the ecological interactions therein will be impacted by global change.
在各种成对物种相互作用中，已经报道了潜在的和已实现的气候变化驱动的物候不匹配。然而，物种通常会参与不止一种类型的时间结构化相互作用——因此，必须在此背景下评估物候变化的后果。综合来自自然历史标本馆、社区科学倡议和遥感平台的数据，我们分析了一种林下春季短命植物的开花物候、其专性传粉者的出现以及上方树冠层的郁闭情况。我们确定了这些相互作用的群落中物候对气候的变化如何影响春季短命植物的潜在授粉窗口。我们证明，在这三个群落的相互作用范围内，物候对气候变化的响应可能有很大差异。预计在不久的将来，潜在授粉窗口将在整个景观的生态区域之间发生不同的变化，这可能会影响花朵和传粉者的适合度和繁殖成功率。我们的研究代表了整合多个相互作用群落物候知识的第一步。扩大此类努力对于提高我们预测生态系统、群落及其内部生态相互作用将如何受到全球变化影响的能力至关重要。
