Harman Rachel R, Morrison William R, Altunç Yunus Emre, Athanassiou Christos G, Gerken Alison R
USDA, Agricultural Research Service, Center for Grain and Animal Health Research, 1515 College Ave, Manhattan, KS, 66502, USA.
Laboratory of Entomology and Agricultural Zoology, Department of Agriculture, Crop Production and Development, University of Thessaly, Phytokou Str., 38446, Volos, Greece.
Sci Rep. 2025 Jul 18;15(1):26064. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-11690-8.
The khapra beetle, Trogoderma granarium, is a stored product pest of global concern, readily transported with cargo and reported in over 60 countries, several of which have spent millions in USD to eradicate populations. Despite the profound risk to stored grain commodities, nothing is known about the potential future distribution of species. We utilize MaxEnt and two datasets representing (1) only the historical range and (2) all global locations where it currently is or was established, even if later eradicated, to model areas of suitability under current future climatic conditions under low and high climate change scenarios at close (2040) and distant (2080) time points. The potential distribution using historical data was much reduced compared to the combined model; consequently, all established localities, even if eradicated, change model outcomes and are vitally important when building models. An increase of high potential suitability (> 75% suitable) is projected with greater time and climatic scenarios, primarily in North America and Europe, which have previously eradicated T. granarium. These results call for greater surveillance to prevent T. granarium expansion to inland areas with high grain production and storage where devastating losses would occur.
谷斑皮蠹（Trogoderma granarium）是一种备受全球关注的仓储害虫，它很容易随货物运输，已在60多个国家被发现，其中有几个国家已花费数百万美元来根除其种群。尽管对储存谷物商品构成了巨大风险，但对于该物种未来可能的分布情况却一无所知。我们利用最大熵模型（MaxEnt）以及两个数据集进行分析，这两个数据集分别代表：（1）仅历史分布范围；（2）其目前已建立或曾经建立（即使后来被根除）的所有全球地点，以此来模拟在近期（2040年）和远期（2080年）的低气候变化情景和高气候变化情景下，当前未来气候条件下的适宜区域。与综合模型相比，使用历史数据得出的潜在分布范围大幅缩小；因此，所有已建立的地点，即使已被根除，也会改变模型结果，并且在构建模型时至关重要。预计随着时间推移和气候变化情景加剧，高潜在适宜性区域（>75%适宜）将会增加，主要集中在北美和欧洲，这些地区此前已根除谷斑皮蠹。这些结果呼吁加强监测，以防止谷斑皮蠹向谷物生产和储存量大的内陆地区扩散，否则可能会造成毁灭性损失。
