Li Die, Li Tiezheng, Wang Yunyan, Pan Feixia, Chen Jiajia, Ruan Jinghua, Xu Weize
Department of Heart Center, Children's Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, National Clinical Research Center for Child Health, Hangzhou, 310052, China; Zhejiang Key Laboratory of Neonatal Diseases, Hangzhou, 310052, China.
Innovation Center for Child Health, Binjiang Institute of Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310052, China.
Int J Hyg Environ Health. 2025 Aug;269:114624. doi: 10.1016/j.ijheh.2025.114624. Epub 2025 Jul 19.
While prenatal PM exposure constitutes an established risk factor for congenital heart defects (CHDs), the modifying role of greenness exposure in this association remains underexplored. We conducted a retrospective cohort study analyzed 1,356,420 birth records (11,803 CHD cases) from Zhejiang Province, China (2018-2023). Prenatal exposure to PM. and its major constituents was estimated using satellite-derived speciation models, and greenness was assessed via the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). Generalized additive models (GAMs) with a quasibinomial logit link and restricted maximum likelihood were used to model non-linear associations and interactions. Mixture effects and joint exposure-response surfaces were estimated using fast Bayesian kernel machine regression (fbKMR). Causal mediation analysis under a counterfactual framework was used to assess indirect effects of PM. in the greenness-CHD relationship. We identified predominantly J-shaped exposure-response relationships between key PM. constituents and CHD risk, with organic matter (OM) and black carbon (BC) exhibiting the steepest risk increases. Mixture modeling via fbKMR revealed a monotonic increase in CHD risk with joint pollutant exposure. NDVI showed a robust U-shaped association with CHDs, with lowest risk at moderate greenness. Seasonal analysis highlighted strong BC and OM effects in autumn and winter, sulfate in spring and winter, and a threshold pattern for ammonium in summer. Spatial heterogeneity was evident, with eastern coastal cities (e.g., Ningbo, Jiaxing) showing pronounced risk increases above 35 μg/m. Septal-type CHDs exhibited consistent positive associations with PM., while complex subtypes showed weaker patterns. Mediation analysis indicated that PM. accounted for 5.6-15.7 % of the greenness-CHD association, with BC showing the strongest mediation effect. Our findings underscore the cumulative toxicity of PM. mixtures and the protective yet nonlinear role of greenness. Region- and season-specific strategies that integrate pollution control and green infrastructure may help mitigate CHD risk.
虽然孕期暴露于细颗粒物(PM)是先天性心脏病(CHD)的既定风险因素,但绿色环境暴露在这种关联中的调节作用仍未得到充分研究。我们进行了一项回顾性队列研究,分析了中国浙江省(2018 - 2023年)的1356420份出生记录(11803例CHD病例)。利用卫星衍生的物种形成模型估算孕期PM及其主要成分的暴露情况,并通过归一化植被指数(NDVI)评估绿色环境。采用具有拟二项式对数链接和限制最大似然法的广义相加模型(GAMs)对非线性关联和相互作用进行建模。使用快速贝叶斯核机器回归(fbKMR)估计混合效应和联合暴露 - 反应面。在反事实框架下进行因果中介分析,以评估PM在绿色环境与CHD关系中的间接效应。我们确定了关键PM成分与CHD风险之间主要为J形的暴露 - 反应关系,其中有机物(OM)和黑碳(BC)的风险增加最为显著。通过fbKMR进行的混合建模显示,随着联合污染物暴露,CHD风险呈单调增加。NDVI与CHD呈稳健的U形关联,在中等绿色度时风险最低。季节性分析突出了秋季和冬季BC和OM的强烈影响、春季和冬季硫酸盐的影响以及夏季铵的阈值模式。空间异质性明显,东部沿海城市(如宁波、嘉兴)在PM浓度高于35μg/m³时风险显著增加。间隔型CHD与PM始终呈正相关,而复杂亚型的相关性较弱。中介分析表明,PM占绿色环境与CHD关联的5.6 - 15.7%,其中BC的中介效应最强。我们的研究结果强调了PM混合物的累积毒性以及绿色环境的保护作用但非线性作用。整合污染控制和绿色基础设施的区域和季节特定策略可能有助于降低CHD风险。