Related Risk Factors That Predict Moderate to Severe Asthma Attack in Children: Analysis Based on Logistic Regression and Decision Tree.

PURPOSE

To analyse the related risk factors of moderate to severe asthma attack in children by logistic regression and decision tree.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

A retrospective analysis of clinical data of children diagnosed with asthma attacks in our hospital from January 2020 to August 2023 was conducted. The patients were divided into mild group (n=459, 57.02%) and moderate to severe group (n=346, 42.98%). Related risk factors of moderate to severe asthma attack in children were analyzed by univariate logistic regression, and then multivariate logistic regression and decision tree model were obtained.

RESULTS

The results of univariate logistic regression showed that there were significant differences between the two groups in age, medical history, allergy history, family history, C-reactive protein (CRP), neutrophil percentage (NEU%), Mycoplasma pneumoniae (MP) infection, Rhinovirus (RV) infection (all p < 0.05). The results of multivariate logistic regression showed that age (≥6 years) (OR=1.636, 95% CI=1.046-2.559), medical history (OR=1.460, 95% CI=1.063-2.006), allergy history (OR=2.387, 95% CI=1.733-3.288), family history (OR=2.564, 95% CI=1.619-4.058), NEU% (OR=1.020, 95% CI=1.009-1.031), MP infection (OR=2.140, 95% CI=1.571-2.916), RV infection (OR=4.546, 95% CI=2.274-9.089) were related risk factors of moderate to severe asthma attack in children (all p<0.05). The decision tree model showed that MP infection, CRP, allergy history, NEU%, and medical history were risk factors of moderate to severe asthma attacks in children, with importance levels of 0.41, 0.29, 0.134, 0.130, and 0.061, respectively. Multivariate logistic regression (AUC=0.733, 95% CI: 0.6980.767) and decision tree (AUC=0.694, 95% CI: 0.6580.731) both exhibited good prediction accuracy.

CONCLUSION

Allergic history, medical history, MP infection, and increased NEU% were related risk factors that predict moderate to severe asthma attack in children. Multivariate logistic regression and decision tree both had a good predictive effect for analyzing the risk factors of moderate to severe asthma attack in children.