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新冠疫情结局与机构及人际信任度指标的关联:一项使用61个国家全国数据的生态分析

Association of COVID-19 outcomes with measures of institutional and interpersonal trust: an ecological analysis using national data from 61 countries.

作者信息

Rountree Lillian, Tong Guangyu, Bu Fan, Ranney Megan, Mukherjee Bhramar

机构信息

Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA.

Section of Cardiovascular Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine Yale School of Medicine, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA.

出版信息

Sci Rep. 2025 Jul 21;15(1):26393. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-09758-6.

Abstract

Despite the importance of human behavior in containing a disease outbreak, formal quantitative analyses examining the relationship between measures of trust and COVID-19 outcomes remain limited. We use data from Wave 7 (2017-2022) of the World Values Survey to assess the country-level relationship between trust and COVID-19 outcomes across 61 countries via clustering and regression. After adjusting for country-level confounders, our findings indicate that countries with low trust have significantly greater numbers of COVID-19 deaths (1200.6 more COVID-19 deaths per million, 95% CI [510.92, 1890.3]), significantly greater excess death (2289.1 more excess deaths per million, 95% CI [971.1, 3607.2]), and a lower vaccination rate (16.6 fewer people vaccinated per 100, 95% CI [-27.7, -5.6]) than high trust countries, suggesting a tangible impact of trust on country-level COVID-19 outcomes. We discuss differences between interpersonal and institutional trust and advocate for incorporating trust in disease modeling to better predict country-level outcomes.

摘要

尽管人类行为在控制疾病爆发方面很重要,但对信任度衡量指标与新冠疫情结果之间关系进行的正式定量分析仍然有限。我们使用世界价值观调查第7波(2017 - 2022年)的数据,通过聚类和回归分析来评估61个国家层面信任与新冠疫情结果之间的关系。在对国家层面的混杂因素进行调整后,我们的研究结果表明,信任度低的国家新冠死亡人数显著更多(每百万人口中新冠死亡人数多1200.6人,95%置信区间[510.92, 1890.3]),超额死亡人数显著更多(每百万人口中超额死亡人数多2289.1人,95%置信区间[971.1, 3607.2]),且疫苗接种率比信任度高的国家低(每100人中接种疫苗的人数少16.6人,95%置信区间[-27.7, -5.6]),这表明信任对国家层面的新冠疫情结果有切实影响。我们讨论了人际信任和制度信任之间的差异,并主张将信任纳入疾病模型,以更好地预测国家层面的结果。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/56cd/12280113/b769a8467389/41598_2025_9758_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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