Qin Wenjie, Zhang Shan, Yang Yi, Zhang Jiamin
Department of Mathematics, Yunnan Minzu University, Kunming, 650500, PR China.
College of Computer Science and Engineering, Chongqing Three Gorges University, Chongqing, 404100, PR China.
Infect Dis Model. 2025 Jul 9;10(4):1270-1290. doi: 10.1016/j.idm.2025.07.006. eCollection 2025 Dec.
The paper explores the effects of media influence and limited medical resources on the spread of infectious diseases using mathematical modeling. We construct a switching epidemic model that incorporates a media influence factor, an inoculation function, and a cure function. This model is subsequently discretized and studied via Euler's method. The number of susceptible individuals serves as the switching threshold, determining when media influence and healthcare resources intervene. By conducting an in-depth analysis of the equilibria of two subsystems, we have not only demonstrated the existence and stability conditions of the equilibria but also proposed the flip bifurcation theory for . Through single-parameter bifurcation analysis, we identify complex dynamic behaviors such as stability, periodicity, and chaos, and examined the impact of key parameters on these dynamics. We also compared the dynamic behaviors of the discrete and continuous models. Additionally, we delve into the interaction between initial populations of susceptible and infected individuals and its effect on outbreak outcomes, as well as the coexistence of attractors. Our research sheds light on the intricate relationship between media influence, constrained medical resources, and infectious disease propagation, offering recommendations for disease control and intervention approaches.
本文运用数学建模方法探讨了媒体影响和有限医疗资源对传染病传播的影响。我们构建了一个包含媒体影响因素、接种函数和治愈函数的切换流行病模型。随后,通过欧拉方法对该模型进行离散化并加以研究。易感个体的数量作为切换阈值,决定了媒体影响和医疗资源何时介入。通过对两个子系统平衡点的深入分析,我们不仅证明了平衡点的存在性和稳定性条件,还提出了 的翻转分岔理论。通过单参数分岔分析,我们识别出稳定性、周期性和混沌等复杂动态行为,并研究了关键参数对这些动态的影响。我们还比较了离散模型和连续模型的动态行为。此外,我们深入探讨了易感个体和感染个体初始种群之间的相互作用及其对疫情爆发结果的影响,以及吸引子的共存情况。我们的研究揭示了媒体影响、有限医疗资源与传染病传播之间的复杂关系,为疾病控制和干预方法提供了建议。