纯种赛马中草地跑道表面与速度及肌肉骨骼损伤风险的相互作用

Turf track surface interaction with speed and musculoskeletal injury risk in Thoroughbred racehorses.

作者信息

Legg K A, Gibson M J, Gee E K, Rogers C W

机构信息

School of Veterinary Science, Massey University, Palmerston North, New Zealand.

出版信息

Equine Vet J. 2025 Jul 24. doi: 10.1111/evj.70003.

DOI:10.1111/evj.70003

PMID:40704543

Abstract

BACKGROUND

Injury modelling based on changes in speed and stride characteristics of racehorses has become a primary industry focus for the Thoroughbred racing industry. However, speed and stride characteristics are strongly associated with track condition; therefore, reliable quantification of surface variables for use in future models is imperative.

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to understand the interaction of objective turf track condition score (TCS) measurement with racing speed and injury in flat racing Thoroughbred horses.

STUDY DESIGN

Retrospective time series analysis.

METHODS

Race-day data from 16 flat racing seasons (2008/9-2023/24, n = 40,824 races) were used to compare monthly TCS (based on penetrometer measurements), the coefficient of variability (CV) for TCS, race speed (over the final 600 m) and the number of race starts. Injury data from 7 seasons (2015-17, 2019-24) were used to calculate the monthly incidence rate (IR per 1000 race starts) of musculoskeletal injury (MSI). A mixed effects linear model was used to assess the relationship between speed, TCS, race distance and horse rating.

RESULTS

Race starts (n = 437,506), TCS and speed showed strong seasonal fluctuations, with more starts, lower and more variable TCS (4, IQR 3-5, CV = 0.44) and higher race speed (16.7 m/s, IQR 16.1-17.2) in summer compared with winter (TCS 10, IQR 8-10, CV = 0.22, p < 0.001 and speed 15.1 m/s, IQR 14.3-15.8, p < 0.001). Race speed had a strong negative quadratic relationship with TCS (β₂ = -0.03, p < 0.001), a negative linear correlation with race distance and was positively correlated with horse rating. There were 433 MSI (IR = 2.22, 95% CI 2.20-2.44), with an immediate (0 lag time) positive association with seasonal changes in TCS (r = -0.28).

MAIN LIMITATIONS

Low monthly numbers of MSI constrained analysis of interaction with track variables.

CONCLUSIONS

TCS provides a reliable quantitative measure of track condition which could be used to refine future models of injury risk in racing Thoroughbreds.

摘要

背景

基于赛马速度和步幅特征变化的损伤建模已成为纯种赛马行业的主要关注焦点。然而，速度和步幅特征与赛道状况密切相关；因此，可靠地量化表面变量以用于未来模型至关重要。

目的

本研究旨在了解客观草坪赛道状况评分（TCS）测量与纯种平地赛马的比赛速度和损伤之间的相互作用。

研究设计

回顾性时间序列分析。

方法

使用16个平地赛马赛季（2008/9 - 2023/24，n = 40,824场比赛）的比赛日数据来比较每月的TCS（基于贯入仪测量）、TCS的变异系数（CV）、比赛速度（最后600米）和比赛参赛次数。使用7个赛季（2015 - 17年，2019 - 24年）的损伤数据来计算肌肉骨骼损伤（MSI）的每月发病率（每1000次比赛参赛的发病率）。使用混合效应线性模型来评估速度、TCS、比赛距离和马匹评分之间的关系。

结果

比赛参赛次数（n = 437,506）、TCS和速度呈现出强烈的季节性波动，与冬季相比，夏季的参赛次数更多、TCS更低且变化更大（4，四分位距3 - 5，CV = 0.44）以及比赛速度更高（16.7米/秒，四分位距16.1 - 17.2）（冬季TCS为10，四分位距8 - 10，CV = 0.22，p < 0.001；速度15.1米/秒，四分位距14.3 - 15.8，p < 0.001）。比赛速度与TCS呈强烈的负二次关系（β₂ = -0.03，p < 0.001），与比赛距离呈负线性相关，且与马匹评分呈正相关。有433例MSI（发病率 = 2.22，95%置信区间2.20 - 2.44），与TCS的季节性变化呈即刻（0延迟时间）正相关（r = -0.28）。