Zeng Qiwei, Sheng Ming, Ouyang Si, Liu Bin
Department of Otorhinolaryngology - Head and Neck Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Hunan Normal University Hunan Provincial People's Hospital, Changsha, 410005, China.
Sci Rep. 2025 Jul 24;15(1):26939. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-10355-w.
This study sought to construct and validate a prognostic nomogram for predicting cause-specific survival (CSS) in patients with nasal cavity squamous cell carcinoma (NCSCC). We conducted a retrospective analysis of clinical data from NCSCC patients registered in the SEER database between 2007 and 2015. Statistical analyses were performed to assess CSS rates and identify prognostic factors. The study cohort comprised 580 NCSCC patients, with CSS probabilities of 89.1%, 74.8%, and 63.6% at 1, 3, and 5 years, respectively. Multivariate Cox regression analysis identified age, American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) stage, and radiotherapy administration as independent prognostic factors significantly associated with CSS. The accuracy of the prediction was evaluated using the C-index and calibration curve. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was utilized to compare the nomogram with the AJCC stage system in order to assess its superiority. We developed and validated a predictive model for 1-, 3-, and 5-year CSS in NCSCC based on a large retrospective cohort. The nomogram demonstrates clinical utility in guiding individualized treatment strategies and patient management.
本研究旨在构建并验证一种用于预测鼻腔鳞状细胞癌（NCSCC）患者特定病因生存率（CSS）的预后列线图。我们对2007年至2015年期间在监测、流行病学和最终结果（SEER）数据库中登记的NCSCC患者的临床数据进行了回顾性分析。进行统计分析以评估CSS率并确定预后因素。研究队列包括580例NCSCC患者，其1年、3年和5年的CSS概率分别为89.1%、74.8%和63.6%。多因素Cox回归分析确定年龄、美国癌症联合委员会（AJCC）分期和放疗使用情况为与CSS显著相关的独立预后因素。使用C指数和校准曲线评估预测的准确性。采用决策曲线分析（DCA）将列线图与AJCC分期系统进行比较，以评估其优越性。我们基于一个大型回顾性队列开发并验证了一种用于预测NCSCC患者1年、3年和5年CSS的预测模型。该列线图在指导个体化治疗策略和患者管理方面具有临床实用性。
