Harris Jeremy D, Gallmeier Esther, Dushoff Jonathan, Beckett Stephen J, Weitz Joshua S
Department of Mathematics, Spelman College, Atlanta, GA, USA.
Center for Applied Mathematics, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, USA.
J Theor Biol. 2025 Oct 7;613:112211. doi: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2025.112211. Epub 2025 Jul 23.
Individual-level variation in susceptibility to infection and transmissibility of infection can affect population-level dynamics in epidemic outbreaks. Prior work has incorporated independent variation in susceptibility or transmissibility of individuals into epidemic compartmental models. Here, we develop and assess a mathematical framework that includes covariation in susceptibility and transmissibility. We show that uncorrelated variation in susceptibility and transmissibility leads to an effective transmissibility distribution that has a constant coefficient of variation such that the epidemic dynamics match those with variation in susceptibility alone, providing a baseline for comparison across different correlation structures. Increasing the correlation between susceptibility and transmissibility increases both the speed and strength of the outbreak - and is indicative of outbreaks which might be strongly structured by contact rate variation. In contrast, negative correlations between susceptibility and transmissibility lead to overall weaker outbreaks - with the caveat that the strength of effective transmission increases over time. In either case, correlations can shift the transmissibility distribution, thereby modifying the speed of the epidemic as the susceptible population is depleted. Overall, this work demonstrates how (often unaccounted) covariation in susceptibility and transmission can shape the course of outbreaks and final outbreak sizes.
个体对感染的易感性以及感染的传播性方面的差异会影响疫情爆发中的群体水平动态。先前的研究已将个体易感性或传播性的独立差异纳入疫情 compartments 模型。在此,我们开发并评估了一个包含易感性和传播性协变的数学框架。我们表明,易感性和传播性的不相关差异会导致有效传播性分布具有恒定的变异系数,使得疫情动态与仅存在易感性差异时的情况相匹配,从而为跨不同相关结构的比较提供了一个基线。易感性和传播性之间相关性的增加会提高疫情爆发的速度和强度——这表明疫情爆发可能由接触率差异强烈构成。相比之下,易感性和传播性之间的负相关会导致总体疫情爆发较弱——但有效传播的强度会随时间增加。在任何一种情况下,相关性都可能改变传播性分布,从而随着易感人群的减少改变疫情的速度。总体而言,这项工作展示了易感性和传播性方面(通常未被考虑的)协变如何塑造疫情爆发的过程和最终的爆发规模。