Fasolin Guilherme N, Spektor Matias, Marques Renan, Camargo Juliana
Department of Political Science, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN, USA.
School of International Relations, Fundação Getulio Vargas, São Paulo, SP, Brazil.
Nat Commun. 2025 Jul 25;16(1):6887. doi: 10.1038/s41467-025-58072-2.
Climate change risk perceptions are subjective constructs that individuals use to interpret the potential harms of climate change and influence their engagement in mitigation and adaptation efforts. While research in high-income Western countries has identified cognitive processes, socio-cultural factors, and political ideology as key predictors of climate risk perceptions, their applicability to low- and middle-income regions remains uncertain. This study uses a cross-national survey conducted in Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Chile, Ecuador, Peru, and Mexico (N = 5338) to assess climate risk perceptions in Latin America. We show that emotional responses, especially worry and perceived vulnerability to extreme weather, are the strongest predictors. In contrast, political ideology and socio-demographic factors exhibit weak and inconsistent associations, diverging from patterns observed in high-income countries. These findings highlight that climate change is not perceived as a politically divisive issue in the region, suggesting opportunities for cross-party collaboration on climate initiatives. Understanding these unique drivers in regions with emerging economies is crucial for developing effective, tailored risk communication strategies.
气候变化风险认知是个体用于解释气候变化潜在危害并影响其参与缓解和适应努力的主观建构。虽然西方高收入国家的研究已确定认知过程、社会文化因素和政治意识形态是气候风险认知的关键预测因素，但其在低收入和中等收入地区的适用性仍不确定。本研究通过在阿根廷、巴西、哥伦比亚、智利、厄瓜多尔、秘鲁和墨西哥进行的一项跨国调查（N = 5338）来评估拉丁美洲的气候风险认知。我们发现，情绪反应，尤其是担忧和对极端天气的感知脆弱性，是最强的预测因素。相比之下，政治意识形态和社会人口因素的关联较弱且不一致，与高收入国家观察到的模式不同。这些发现凸显出气候变化在该地区并非被视为一个政治上有分歧的问题，这表明在气候倡议方面存在跨党派合作的机会。了解新兴经济体地区这些独特的驱动因素对于制定有效的、量身定制的风险沟通策略至关重要。
