Khalid Noman, Abdullah Muhammad, Higgins Sabrina Clare, Ahmad Bilal, Munshi Hasan, Hasnat Mahnoor, Afzal Muhammad Adil, Doshi Rajkumar, Vasudev Rahul, Fayez Shamoon E, Gardin Julius M, Panza Julio A
Department of Internal Medicine, New York Presbyterian Brooklyn Methodist Hospital, Brooklyn, NY 11215, USA.
Division of Clinical Research, Access Research Institute, Brooksville, FL 34613, USA.
J Clin Med. 2025 Jul 8;14(14):4851. doi: 10.3390/jcm14144851.
: Cardiac arrest remains a significant public health challenge with variable mortality trends across different demographics and regions, affecting healthcare planning and intervention strategies. We conducted this study to analyze cardiac arrest-related mortality trends from 1999 to 2023 and predict future trends up to 2035. : This study analyzed data from 1999 to 2023, focusing on cardiac arrest as the primary cause of death (ICD-10: I46). Age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMRs) were standardized according to the 2000 U.S. Census. Joinpoint regression was utilized to calculate annual percentage change (APC), and an ARIMA model with Python 3.10 was used for mortality predictions. : A total of 365,608 cardiac arrest-related deaths were recorded in the USA from 1999 to 2023. There was a sharp decline in mortality rate until 2001 (APC: -10.35, < 0.05), followed by a slowed decline until 2013 (APC: -2.91, < 0.05), and then a gradual uptrend. Males exhibited a higher AAMR (5.8, 95% CI: 5.8-5.9) compared to females (4.2, 95% CI: 4.1-4.2). African Americans had the highest AAMR (8.9, 95% CI: 8.9-9), followed by Caucasians (4.8, 95% CI: 4.8-4.9) and American Indians (3.5, 95% CI: 3.3-3.7). The South region of the US had the highest AAMR, followed by the Northeast, Midwest, and West. Alabama exhibited the highest AAMR, followed by Nevada and Hawaii. Predictive analysis suggests a potential stable slow downtrend in mortality rates by 2035 (AAMR: 4.28, 95% CI: -1.8-10.4). : The observed trends and future predictions underscore the importance of targeted public health interventions and healthcare planning to address cardiac arrest mortality.
心脏骤停仍然是一项重大的公共卫生挑战，不同人口统计学特征和地区的死亡率趋势各不相同，这影响着医疗保健规划和干预策略。我们开展这项研究，以分析1999年至2023年与心脏骤停相关的死亡率趋势，并预测直至2035年的未来趋势。：本研究分析了1999年至2023年的数据，重点关注心脏骤停作为主要死因（国际疾病分类第十版：I46）。年龄调整死亡率（AAMRs）根据2000年美国人口普查进行标准化。采用连接点回归计算年度百分比变化（APC），并使用带有Python 3.10的自回归积分移动平均（ARIMA）模型进行死亡率预测。：1999年至2023年期间，美国共记录了365,608例与心脏骤停相关的死亡病例。在2001年之前死亡率急剧下降（APC：-10.35，<0.05），随后下降速度放缓直至2013年（APC：-2.91，<0.05），然后呈逐渐上升趋势。男性的年龄调整死亡率（AAMR）（5.8，95%置信区间：5.8 - 5.9）高于女性（4.2，95%置信区间：4.1 - 4.2）。非裔美国人的年龄调整死亡率最高（8.9，95%置信区间：8.9 - 9），其次是白种人（4.8，95%置信区间：4.8 - 4.9）和美洲印第安人（3.5，95%置信区间：3.3 - 3.7）。美国南部地区的年龄调整死亡率最高，其次是东北部、中西部和西部。阿拉巴马州的年龄调整死亡率最高，其次是内华达州和夏威夷州。预测分析表明，到2035年死亡率可能呈稳定的缓慢下降趋势（年龄调整死亡率：4.28，95%置信区间：-1.8 - 10.4）。：观察到的趋势和未来预测强调了针对性公共卫生干预和医疗保健规划对于解决心脏骤停死亡率问题的重要性。
