Shukla Tej, Mayfield Helen J, Litt John C B, Brown Samuel J, Sinclair Jane, Wen Sophie, Britton Philip N, Puranik Rajesh, Short Kirsty R, Moghaddam Tina, Williams Olivia, Lau Colleen L, Dyda Amalie
Guy's and St Thomas' NHS Foundation Trust, London, UK.
School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD, Australia.
NPJ Vaccines. 2025 Jul 29;10(1):174. doi: 10.1038/s41541-025-01237-3.
The Pfizer COVID-19 vaccines have been associated with an increased risk of myocarditis. However, COVID-19 infection is also associated with complications. A Bayesian network (BN), informed by Australian and international data, was created to determine individual risks and benefits of the Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine in the paediatric. The risk of myocarditis between vaccine-associated, COVID-19 and background rates was compared, as well as secondary outcomes such as hospitalization, and MIS-C. At a population level, hospitalizations, intensive care admissions and MIS-C cases prevented at differing transmission rates and vaccine coverage were analyzed. The model estimated that teenage males were 4.47 times more likely to develop myocarditis from COVID-19 compared to the vaccine. Furthermore, the risk of hospitalizations and MIS-C were more likely in the unvaccinated cohort for all ages. The population level benefits of COVID-19 Pfizer vaccine at mitigating myocarditis are more nuanced, contingent on age, transmission rates and vaccination coverage.
辉瑞新冠疫苗与心肌炎风险增加有关。然而，新冠病毒感染也会引发并发症。基于澳大利亚和国际数据构建了一个贝叶斯网络（BN），以确定辉瑞新冠疫苗在儿科人群中的个体风险和益处。比较了疫苗相关、新冠病毒感染以及背景发生率的心肌炎风险，以及诸如住院和儿童多系统炎症综合征（MIS-C）等次要结果。在人群层面，分析了在不同传播率和疫苗接种覆盖率下预防的住院、重症监护入院和MIS-C病例。该模型估计，与接种疫苗相比，青少年男性因感染新冠病毒而患心肌炎的可能性高出4.47倍。此外，所有年龄段未接种疫苗的人群发生住院和MIS-C的风险更高。辉瑞新冠疫苗在减轻心肌炎方面的人群层面益处更为微妙，取决于年龄、传播率和疫苗接种覆盖率。
