Gonçalves André Calixto, de Magalhães Marcelo Marques, de Almeida Lopes Fernandes Gustavo Andrey, Fernandes Ivan Filipe, de Almeida Faria Kaylane, Dos Santos Gabriel Alexandre, Valentim R, do Nascimento Gabriela Moraes, Rodrigues Francisco Aparecido, Ceneviva Ricardo, Stama Maria Clara Mendes, Mori Daniel Tetsuo G, Capellini Carolina Nascimento, Garcia Maria Eduarda Feres, Bruschi Thiago, Gonçalves Gabriel Poveda, Brito Laís Costa, Toussaint Djeansy Djarny Etchiamiadzy, Gonçalves Rejane Calixto, Luiz O C
CECS-Center for Engineering, Modeling and Applied Social Sciences, Federal University of ABC, São Bernardo do Campo, Brazil.
School of Sciences and Engineering, São Paulo State University, Tupã, SP, Brazil.
Sci Rep. 2025 Jul 29;15(1):27572. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-13257-z.
Forest fires release toxic pollutants from burning vegetation, posing serious risks to human health. The Brazilian Pantanal-the world's largest continuous wetland-is currently experiencing severe wildfires. This situation may lead to a spike in hospital admissions for respiratory and cardiovascular conditions. To assess the health impacts of these fires on local populations, we applied a generalized linear model incorporating geographic variables, including air quality and climate data. This approach allowed us to evaluate the relationship between active fire outbreaks and hospitalizations among residents of the Pantanal. Our results reveal a troubling pattern: an increase of 10 active fires is associated with a significant rise in daily hospitalizations. Over a 10-year period, the risk of respiratory hospitalizations rose by 23.2%, while cardiovascular hospitalizations increased by 22.3% for every 10 additional fires. These findings underscore the urgent need for preventive action. By forecasting the potential daily rise in hospital admissions, our study offers valuable insights to help Brazilian authorities implement fire mitigation strategies and strengthen the preparedness of the local healthcare system.
森林火灾会从燃烧的植被中释放有毒污染物，对人类健康构成严重风险。巴西潘塔纳尔湿地——世界上最大的连续湿地——目前正遭受严重野火侵袭。这种情况可能导致呼吸道和心血管疾病的住院人数激增。为评估这些火灾对当地居民健康的影响，我们应用了一个包含地理变量（包括空气质量和气候数据）的广义线性模型。这种方法使我们能够评估潘塔纳尔湿地活跃火灾爆发与住院情况之间的关系。我们的研究结果揭示了一个令人担忧的模式：活跃火灾增加10起与每日住院人数显著上升相关。在10年期间，每增加10起火灾，呼吸道疾病住院风险上升23.2%，心血管疾病住院风险上升22.3%。这些发现凸显了采取预防行动的迫切必要性。通过预测每日住院人数的潜在增长，我们的研究提供了宝贵见解，以帮助巴西当局实施火灾缓解策略并加强当地医疗系统的应对能力。
