Challenges and Potential of Remote Sensing for Assessing Risk in Water Sources: Evidence from Chile.

Waterborne illnesses, including those caused by , are an increasing public health challenge, particularly in developing countries. Potential sources of salmonellosis include fruits and vegetables irrigated/treated with surface water, leading to human infections. causes millions of gastroenteritis cases annually, but early detection through routine water quality surveillance is time-consuming, requires specialized equipment, and faces limitations, such as coverage gaps, delayed data, and poor accessibility. Climate change-driven extreme events such as floods and droughts further exacerbate variability in water quality. In this context, remote sensing offers an efficient and cost-effective alternative for environmental monitoring. This study evaluated the potential of Sentinel-2 satellite imagery to predict occurrence in the Maipo and Mapocho river basins (Chile) by integrating spectral, microbiological, climatic, and land use variables. A total of 1851 water samples collected between 2019 and 2023, including 704 positive samples for , were used to develop a predictive model. Predicting in surface waters using remote sensing is challenging for several reasons. Satellite sensors capture environmental proxies (e.g., vegetation cover, surface moisture, and turbidity) but not pathogens. Our goal was to identify proxies that reliably correlate with . Twelve spectral indices (e.g., NDVI, NDWI, and MNDWI) were used as predictors to develop a predictive model for the presence of the pathogen, which achieved 59.2% accuracy. By spatially interpolating the occurrences, it was possible to identify areas with the greatest potential for presence. NDWI and AWEI were most strongly correlated with presence in high-humidity areas, and spatial interpolation identified the higher-risk zones. These findings reveal the challenges of using remote sensing to identify environmental conditions conducive to the presence of pathogens in surface waters. This study highlights the methodological challenges that must be addressed to make satellite-based surveillance an accessible and effective public health tool. By integrating satellite data with environmental and microbiological analyses, this approach can potentially strengthen low-cost, proactive environmental monitoring for public health decision-making in the context of climate change.