Ogunro Bamidele, Olonisaye Precious, Obasa Adedunsola, Kpasham Luimommei, Zakariya Mariam, Oyagbemi Taiwo, Awosanya Emmanuel, Olugasa Babasola
Veterinary teaching hospital, University of Ibadan, Oyo State, Nigeria.
Department of Veterinary Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Ibadan, Oyo State, Nigeria.
Vet Ital. 2025 Jul 10;61(3). doi: 10.12834/VetIt.3687.32442.2.
Canine parvoviral enteritis (CPE) is a highly contagious and often fatal disease, particularly affecting young, unvaccinated dogs. Although anecdotal reports suggest seasonal variation in CPE incidence in Nigeria, comprehensive time series analyses remain scarce. This study analyzed clinical records of CPE cases-diagnosed either clinically or via laboratory confirmation-collected from three veterinary clinics in Ibadan, Nigeria, between January 2018 and December 2024. Temporal patterns were decomposed into trend, seasonal, and random components. Stationarity and temporal autocorrelation were assessed using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller and Ljung-Box tests, respectively. An Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was selected using the auto.arima function implemented in R (Vienna, Austria), and subsequently used to forecast CPE incidence over a 24-month horizon. The Box-Pierce test on residuals (P = 0.9409) confirmed the model's adequacy. CPE incidence showed distinct seasonal peaks during the dry months, best captured by the ARIMA (1,1,1)(1,0,0) (model non-seasonal autoregressive order =1, differencing order =1, and moving average order =1; seasonal autoregressive order =1, differencing order = 0, and moving average order = 0; monthly seasonality = 12), and exhibited a negative correlation with historical average monthly rainfall (r = -0.55). However, forecasts for 2025-2026 suggest a gradual decline in incidence and a transition toward year-round occurrence with less pronounced seasonal peaks. These findings underscore the need for continuous preventive efforts. Veterinary practitioners should maintain a high index of suspicion for CPE, especially in young dogs with incomplete vaccination status.
犬细小病毒肠炎（CPE）是一种高度传染性且往往致命的疾病，尤其影响未接种疫苗的幼犬。尽管有传闻称尼日利亚CPE发病率存在季节性变化，但全面的时间序列分析仍然很少。本研究分析了2018年1月至2024年12月期间从尼日利亚伊巴丹的三家兽医诊所收集的CPE病例的临床记录，这些病例通过临床诊断或实验室确诊。时间模式被分解为趋势、季节和随机成分。分别使用增强迪基-富勒检验和Ljung-Box检验评估平稳性和时间自相关性。使用R（奥地利维也纳）中实现的auto.arima函数选择自回归积分移动平均（ARIMA）模型，随后用于预测24个月内的CPE发病率。对残差的Box-Pierce检验（P = 0.9409）证实了模型的充分性。CPE发病率在旱季呈现明显的季节性高峰，ARIMA（1,1,1）（1,0,0）模型（模型非季节性自回归阶数 = 1，差分阶数 = 1，移动平均阶数 = 1；季节性自回归阶数 = 1，差分阶数 = 0，移动平均阶数 = 0；月度季节性 = 12）能最好地捕捉到这一情况，并且与历史平均月降雨量呈负相关（r = -0.55）。然而，2025 - 2026年的预测表明发病率将逐渐下降，并向全年发病转变，季节性高峰不那么明显。这些发现强调了持续预防措施的必要性。兽医从业者应对CPE保持高度怀疑指数，尤其是对疫苗接种不完全的幼犬。
