Kramer Lilith, Teurlincx Sven, Rashleigh Brenda, Janssen Annette B G, Janse Jan H, Brauman Kate A, Földesi Csaba, van Wijk Dianneke, de Senerpont Domis Lisette N, Patil Sopan D, Rashidi Parinaz, Hamel Perrine, Rising James, Mooij Wolf M, Kuiper Jan J
Department of Aquatic Ecology, Netherlands Institute of Ecology (NIOO-KNAW), Wageningen, The Netherlands.
Aquatic Ecology and Water Quality Management Group, Wageningen University and Research, Wageningen, The Netherlands.
Sustain Sci. 2023 Jul 3. doi: 10.1007/s11625-023-01341-0.
Freshwater ecosystems are exceptionally rich in biodiversity and provide essential benefits to people. Yet they are disproportionately threatened compared to terrestrial and marine systems and remain underrepresented in the scenarios and models used for global environmental assessments. The Nature Futures Framework (NFF) has recently been proposed to advance the contribution of scenarios and models for environmental assessments. This framework places the diverse relationships between people and nature at its core, identifying three value perspectives as points of departure: Nature for Nature, Nature for Society, and Nature as Culture. We explore how the NFF may be implemented for improved assessment of freshwater ecosystems. First, we outline how the NFF and its main value perspectives can be translated to freshwater systems and explore what desirable freshwater futures would look like from each of the above perspectives. Second, we review scenario strategies and current models to examine how freshwater modelling can be linked to the NFF in terms of its aims and outcomes. In doing so, we also identify which aspects of the NFF framework are not yet captured in current freshwater models and suggest possible ways to bridge them. Our analysis provides future directions for a more holistic freshwater model and scenario development and demonstrates how society can benefit from freshwater modelling efforts that are integrated with the value-perspectives of the NFF.
淡水生态系统拥有极为丰富的生物多样性，并为人类提供了至关重要的益处。然而，与陆地和海洋系统相比，它们受到的威胁尤为严重，在用于全球环境评估的情景和模型中也未得到充分体现。最近提出了自然未来框架（NFF），以推动情景和模型对环境评估的贡献。该框架将人与自然之间的多样关系置于核心位置，确定了三个价值视角作为出发点：为自然的自然、为社会的自然以及作为文化的自然。我们探讨如何实施NFF以改进对淡水生态系统的评估。首先，我们概述NFF及其主要价值视角如何转化为淡水系统，并从上述每个视角探索理想的淡水未来会是什么样。其次，我们回顾情景策略和当前模型，以研究淡水建模在目标和成果方面如何与NFF相联系。在此过程中，我们还确定了当前淡水模型中尚未涵盖的NFF框架的哪些方面，并提出了连接这些方面的可能方法。我们的分析为更全面的淡水模型和情景发展提供了未来方向，并展示了社会如何从与NFF价值视角相结合的淡水建模努力中受益。
