Durán América Paz, Kuiper Jan J, Aguiar Ana Paula Dutra, Cheung William W L, Diaw Mariteuw Chimère, Halouani Ghassen, Hashimoto Shizuka, Gasalla Maria A, Peterson Garry D, Schoolenberg Machteld A, Abbasov Rovshan, Acosta Lilibeth A, Armenteras Dolors, Davila Federico, Denboba Mekuria Argaw, Harrison Paula A, Harhash Khaled Allam, Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen Sylvia, Kim HyeJin, Lundquist Carolyn J, Miller Brian W, Okayasu Sana, Pichs-Madruga Ramon, Sathyapalan Jyothis, Saysel Ali Kerem, Yu Dandan, Pereira Laura M
Instituto de Ciencias Ambientales y Evolutivas, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, Chile.
Instituto de Ecología y Biodiversidad (IEB-Chile), Santiago, Chile.
Sustain Sci. 2023 May 4:1-20. doi: 10.1007/s11625-023-01316-1.
To halt further destruction of the biosphere, most people and societies around the globe need to transform their relationships with nature. The internationally agreed vision under the Convention of Biological Diversity-Living in harmony with nature-is that "By 2050, biodiversity is valued, conserved, restored and wisely used, maintaining ecosystem services, sustaining a healthy planet and delivering benefits essential for all people". In this context, there are a variety of debates between alternative perspectives on how to achieve this vision. Yet, scenarios and models that are able to explore these debates in the context of "living in harmony with nature" have not been widely developed. To address this gap, the Nature Futures Framework has been developed to catalyse the development of new scenarios and models that embrace a plurality of perspectives on desirable futures for nature and people. In this paper, members of the IPBES task force on scenarios and models provide an example of how the Nature Futures Framework can be implemented for the development of illustrative narratives representing a diversity of desirable nature futures: information that can be used to assess and develop scenarios and models whilst acknowledging the underpinning value perspectives on nature. Here, the term reflects the multiple ways in which desired nature futures can be captured by these narratives. In addition, to explore the interdependence between narratives, and therefore their potential to be translated into scenarios and models, the six narratives developed here were assessed around three areas of the transformative change debate, specifically, (1) land sparing vs. land sharing, (2) Half Earth vs. Whole Earth conservation, and (3) green growth vs. post-growth economic development. The paper concludes with an assessment of how the Nature Futures Framework could be used to assist in developing and articulating transformative pathways towards desirable nature futures.
The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11625-023-01316-1.
为阻止对生物圈的进一步破坏，全球大多数人和社会需要改变他们与自然的关系。《生物多样性公约》所达成的国际共识愿景——与自然和谐共生——是“到2050年，生物多样性得到重视、保护、恢复和合理利用，维持生态系统服务，维系健康星球，并为所有人带来至关重要的福祉”。在此背景下，关于如何实现这一愿景，不同观点之间存在各种争论。然而，能够在“与自然和谐共生”背景下探讨这些争论的情景和模型尚未得到广泛开发。为填补这一空白，已制定了自然未来框架，以推动开发新的情景和模型，这些情景和模型包含对自然和人类理想未来的多种观点。在本文中，政府间生物多样性和生态系统服务科学政策平台情景和模型特别工作组的成员提供了一个示例，说明如何运用自然未来框架来制定具有代表性的叙述，以展现各种理想的自然未来：这些信息可用于评估和开发情景与模型，同时承认关于自然的潜在价值观点。这里，该术语反映了这些叙述能够捕捉理想自然未来的多种方式。此外，为探究各叙述之间的相互依存关系，以及它们转化为情景和模型的潜力，围绕变革性变化辩论的三个领域对这里制定的六个叙述进行了评估，具体而言，（1）土地节约与土地共享，（2）半个地球保护与整个地球保护，以及（3）绿色增长与后增长型经济发展。本文最后评估了自然未来框架如何能够用于协助制定和阐明通向理想自然未来的变革性路径。
在线版本包含可在10.1007/s11625 - 023 - 01316 - 1获取的补充材料。
