Hou Congmei
School of Management, Xuzhou Medical University, Xuzhou, Jiangsu Province, China.
Sci Rep. 2025 Jul 31;15(1):27928. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-13699-5.
Urban green development is critical to reducing carbon emissions and mitigating climate change. Urban green productivity substantially affects urban green development. Clarifying its development of urban green productivity and influencing factors can provide a new method for dynamically quantifying urban green development. We established a system dynamics simulation model of urban green productivity to describe the mutual feedback relationship between factors. A case study was conducted of Beijing's green productivity from 2024 to 2035 to provide insights and practical guidance to improve urban green development and formulate targeted policies. The economic development level, human capital, industrial structure adjustment, innovation level, government intervention, and environmental regulation had positive effects on Beijing's green productivity. Foreign trade openness had the smallest effect, infrastructure conditions had no significant impact, and the coordinated development of the driving factors had the largest influence on Beijing's green productivity. This study provides an empirical basis for formulating policies affecting urban green development.
城市绿色发展对于减少碳排放和缓解气候变化至关重要。城市绿色生产力对城市绿色发展有重大影响。厘清城市绿色生产力的发展及其影响因素可为动态量化城市绿色发展提供新方法。我们建立了城市绿色生产力的系统动力学模拟模型来描述各因素之间的相互反馈关系。以北京2024年至2035年的绿色生产力为例进行研究，为改善城市绿色发展和制定针对性政策提供见解和实践指导。经济发展水平、人力资本、产业结构调整、创新水平、政府干预和环境规制对北京的绿色生产力有积极影响。外贸开放度影响最小，基础设施条件无显著影响，驱动因素的协同发展对北京绿色生产力影响最大。本研究为制定影响城市绿色发展的政策提供了实证依据。
