Liu Yin, Fan Lu, Yan Binjian
School of Economics and Management, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China.
School of Public Administration, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Ürümqi, Xinjiang, China.
PLoS One. 2025 Aug 1;20(8):e0327431. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0327431. eCollection 2025.
Promoting the continuous income increase of the poverty-alleviated population has become one of the key tasks to consolidate the achievements of poverty alleviation, promote rural revitalization and achieve common prosperity. Based on the survey data of 738 farmers in six poverty-alleviated counties (cities) in an underdeveloped region in northwest China, this paper uses the endogenous transformation regression model to empirically explore the income-increasing effect of microcredit for the poverty-alleviated population, and uses the quantile regression model and OLS regression model to explore raising the low effect of microcredit for the poverty-alleviated population. The results show that: (1) Based on the counterfactual hypothesis, if the farmers who obtain microcredit for poverty-alleviated population are not loaned, their production and operating income will decrease by 3.31%, that is, microcredit has a significant income-increasing effect, and the income-increasing effect of obtaining microcredit for the poverty-alleviated population on the monitoring objects is greater than the households that have lifted out of poverty. (2) The mechanism of action shows that the microcredit policy for the poverty- alleviated population promotes income increase by promoting farmers to increase material capital investment and social capital investment. (3) The income-increasing effect of obtain microcredit for poverty-alleviated population on the low-income initial endowment farmers is greater than that on high-income initial endowment farmers, and farmers with low-land initial endowment have a higher income increase effect, that is, a 'raising the low ' effect. The overall efficiency effect on 'low→high 'initial endowment farmers shows a decreasing trend. Therefore, in order to ensure the effectiveness of financial precision assistance, we should promote the microcredit policy of the poverty-alleviated population from the aspects of policy stability and implementation precision.
促进脱贫人口持续增收已成为巩固脱贫成果、推动乡村振兴和实现共同富裕的关键任务之一。基于中国西北欠发达地区6个脱贫县（市）738户农户的调查数据，本文运用内生转换回归模型实证探究小额信贷对脱贫人口的增收效应，并运用分位数回归模型和OLS回归模型探究小额信贷对脱贫人口的提低效应。研究结果表明：（1）基于反事实假设，若获得脱贫人口小额信贷的农户未获贷款，其生产经营收入将减少3.31%，即小额信贷具有显著的增收效应，且脱贫人口小额信贷对监测对象的增收效应大于已脱贫户。（2）作用机制表明，脱贫人口小额信贷政策通过促进农户增加物质资本投入和社会资本投入来促进增收。（3）脱贫人口小额信贷对低收入初始禀赋农户的增收效应大于高收入初始禀赋农户，且土地初始禀赋低的农户增收效应更高，即存在“提低”效应。对“低→高”初始禀赋农户的总体效率效应呈递减趋势。因此，为确保金融精准帮扶成效，应从政策稳定性和执行精准度等方面推进脱贫人口小额信贷政策。
