Medical demography in Denmark. II. Prognoses--how to achieve equilibrium?

In keeping with efforts made during the 1970s to achieve a better balance between supply and demand on the employment marker for doctors, several detailed prognoses have been produced for the future development of supply with regard to sex and age structure, mortality, early retirement, frequency of emigration, specialist distribution etc. On the demand side, the prognoses are of a more evaluating character partly because there has not been sufficiently effective methods developed to predict the growth of the demand, partly because the future demand is dependent on a wide range of health, technological, economic and political factors which can hardly be predicted. This article is an account of the main tendencies anticipated in the expansion of the supply of medical doctors in the coming decades. Further, the possibilities for achieving equilibrium between supply and demand in the future employment market will be discussed.