Politzer R M, Gamliel S R, Cultice J M, Bazell C M, Rivo M L, Mullan F
Workforce Analysis and Research Branch, Office of Research and Planning, Health Resources and Services Administration, Rockville, MD 20857, USA.
Inquiry. 1996 Summer;33(2):181-94.
Managed care has been growing and likely will increase market share. This movement will require fundamental alterations in the number and specialty distribution of physicians. Under current production, future supply does not appear well-matched with requirements. Although the adequacy of generalist supply is of concern, the oversupply of specialists is the overriding problem. Neither reducing the number of first-year residents nor increasing the generalist output alone would bring both generalist and specialist supply within requirement ranges. Combining an increase in generalist production to 50% with a reduction in first-year residents to 110% of the number of U.S. medical graduates would minimize the projected specialty surplus while maintaining generalist supply within the requirement range.
管理式医疗一直在发展，而且很可能会增加市场份额。这一趋势将要求医生的数量和专业分布发生根本性变化。按照目前的培养情况，未来的供应似乎与需求不太匹配。虽然全科医生的供应充足情况令人担忧，但专科医生供过于求才是首要问题。仅仅减少第一年住院医生的数量或增加全科医生的产出，都无法使全科医生和专科医生的供应达到需求范围。将全科医生的培养数量增加到50%，同时将第一年住院医生的数量减少到美国医学毕业生数量的110%，将在保持全科医生供应在需求范围内的同时，最大限度地减少预计的专科医生过剩情况。
