Matching physician supply and requirements: testing policy recommendations.

Managed care has been growing and likely will increase market share. This movement will require fundamental alterations in the number and specialty distribution of physicians. Under current production, future supply does not appear well-matched with requirements. Although the adequacy of generalist supply is of concern, the oversupply of specialists is the overriding problem. Neither reducing the number of first-year residents nor increasing the generalist output alone would bring both generalist and specialist supply within requirement ranges. Combining an increase in generalist production to 50% with a reduction in first-year residents to 110% of the number of U.S. medical graduates would minimize the projected specialty surplus while maintaining generalist supply within the requirement range.