Xu Zi-Yao, Hao Xin-Yu, Zhang Zhongyong, Zhang Junjun, Gao Lei, Li Tian, Wang Xin-Xin
Senior Department of General Surgery, the First Medical Center of Chinese PLA General Hospital, Beijing, People's Republic of China.
Department of Anesthesiology, the First Medical Center of Chinese PLA General Hospital, Beijing, People's Republic of China.
Clin Interv Aging. 2025 Jul 29;20:1137-1153. doi: 10.2147/CIA.S516475. eCollection 2025.
BACKGROUND: Aged patients with coronary stents facing gastrointestinal cancer surgery are encountered more and more frequently in clinical practice, and such patients are at high risk of both bleeding and ischemia, requiring effective risk assessment. Therefore, this study will establish a prediction tool that can predict both bleeding events and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs). METHODS: Multicenter clinical data from 3127 gastrointestinal cancer surgery patients with a history of coronary stent implantation were utilized to establish and validate our prediction tool. We introduced the revised cardiac risk index (RCRI) score and the subsequent dual antiplatelet therapy (PRECISE-DAPT) score to be contrast. Net reclassification index (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) were used to interpret the strengths. Within 30 days post-surgery, we compared the bleeding events and MACEs. RESULTS: Among 3127 patients, 437 (13.9%) developed MACEs and 565 (18.1%) developed bleeding events. The MACEs model achieved good prediction performance both in the internal set (AUC: 0.924, 95% CI: 0.910-0.939) and the external set (AUC: 0.908, 95% CI: 0.880-0.937). The bleeding model also achieved good prediction performance both in the internal set (AUC: 0.862, 95% CI: 0.843-0.882) and the external set (AUC: 0.852, 95% CI: 0.818-0.886). The nomogram score greater than 131 indicates a high risk, with a postoperative MACEs incidence exceeding 23%. Similarly, the score exceeding 124 signifies a high risk, with a postoperative bleeding incidence above 21%. CONCLUSION: The novel predictive instrument provides the online risk calculator, which could accurately quantify the risk of bleeding and ischemia in patients with coronary stent undergoing gastrointestinal cancer surgery.
背景:临床上,老年冠状动脉支架置入患者面临胃肠道癌手术的情况越来越常见,这类患者出血和缺血风险均很高,需要进行有效的风险评估。因此,本研究将建立一种能够预测出血事件和主要不良心血管事件(MACE)的预测工具。 方法:利用3127例有冠状动脉支架植入史的胃肠道癌手术患者的多中心临床数据来建立和验证我们的预测工具。我们引入修订的心脏风险指数(RCRI)评分和后续的双联抗血小板治疗(PRECISE-DAPT)评分作为对照。采用净重新分类指数(NRI)和综合判别改善(IDI)来阐释其优势。在术后30天内,我们比较了出血事件和MACE。 结果:在3127例患者中,437例(13.9%)发生MACE,565例(18.1%)发生出血事件。MACE模型在内部数据集(AUC:0.924,95%CI:0.910-0.939)和外部数据集(AUC:0.908,95%CI:0.880-0.937)中均表现出良好的预测性能。出血模型在内部数据集(AUC:0.862,95%CI:0.843-0.882)和外部数据集(AUC:0.852,95%CI:0.818-0.886)中也表现出良好的预测性能。列线图评分大于131表示高风险,术后MACE发生率超过23%。同样,评分超过124表示高风险,术后出血发生率高于21%。 结论:这种新型预测工具提供了在线风险计算器,能够准确量化接受胃肠道癌手术的冠状动脉支架置入患者的出血和缺血风险。
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