Hu Li-Chung, Hannum Emily
Department of Sociology, National Chengchi University, Taipei, Taiwan (R.O.C).
Department of Sociology, Philadelphia, University of Pennsylvania, USA.
Child Youth Serv Rev. 2020 Jun;113. doi: 10.1016/j.childyouth.2020.104896. Epub 2020 Feb 25.
This paper analyzes the prevalence, correlates, and behavioral and academic impacts of grade retention using national and single-province data from China. Retention is much more prevalent in China than official estimates suggest; it is more frequent in less-developed parts of the country; and it is associated nationally with poorer subsequent performance and psychosocial well-being, even after adjusting for numerous confounders. However, with certain caveats, findings suggest that retention is primarily a "red flag" and is not a cause of poorer achievement and behavioral outcomes. A longitudinal analysis in one province shows that retained children can gain ground in academic and behavioral outcomes; a further causal analysis using matched samples and difference-in-difference approaches shows no evidence of a causal impact of retention on outcomes. High levels of population mobility and associated school transfers may contribute to grade retention being reported by students and families but not captured in school records.
本文利用来自中国的全国性数据和单一省份的数据，分析了留级现象的流行程度、相关因素以及对行为和学业的影响。留级现象在中国比官方估计更为普遍；在该国较不发达地区更为频繁；而且在全国范围内，即使在对众多混杂因素进行调整之后，留级也与较差的后续表现和心理社会幸福感相关。然而，在某些条件下，研究结果表明，留级主要是一个“危险信号”，并非成绩较差和行为结果的原因。在一个省份进行的纵向分析表明，留级学生在学业和行为方面能够取得进步；使用匹配样本和差分法进行的进一步因果分析表明，没有证据显示留级对结果有因果影响。高人口流动性及相关的学校转学可能导致学生和家庭报告留级情况，但学校记录中并未体现。
