Mochurad Lesia, Levkovych Roman
Lviv Polytechnic National University, Lviv, 79013, Ukraine.
Sci Rep. 2025 Aug 5;15(1):28488. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-14423-z.
In the context of the growing volume and complexity of data, traditional methods of energy consumption forecasting, such as Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN), face computational complexity issues that limit their real-time application. This also complicates the effective management of energy systems. In this work, a new model is proposed that combines the advantages of Temporal Convolutional Networks (TCN) and Quasi-Recurrent Neural Networks (QRNN) for energy consumption forecasting. TCN allows for effective processing of long time series, capturing essential temporal dependencies. Meanwhile, QRNN reduces computational costs through parallelization of operations and an optimized architecture. The effectiveness of the proposed model has been assessed in comparison with traditional methods such as Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) networks, as well as other convolutional approaches. Experimental results show that the proposed TCN-QRNN model outperforms traditional methods by 40% in accuracy compared to LSTM and by 8% in terms of metrics such as Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) compared to TCN-LSTM, while reducing data processing time by 30%. Additionally, the model has a significantly smaller number of parameters than LSTM and GRU, making it suitable for environments with limited computational resources. The proposed model ensures a high level of energy consumption forecasting accuracy while significantly reducing processing time, making it promising for use in real-world energy systems.
在数据量不断增长且复杂性日益增加的背景下,传统的能源消耗预测方法,如递归神经网络(RNN),面临计算复杂性问题,这限制了它们的实时应用。这也使能源系统的有效管理变得复杂。在这项工作中,提出了一种新模型,该模型结合了时间卷积网络(TCN)和准递归神经网络(QRNN)的优点用于能源消耗预测。TCN能够有效地处理长时间序列,捕捉重要的时间依赖性。同时,QRNN通过操作并行化和优化架构降低了计算成本。与传统方法如长短期记忆(LSTM)和门控循环单元(GRU)网络以及其他卷积方法相比,对所提出模型的有效性进行了评估。实验结果表明,所提出的TCN-QRNN模型在准确率方面比LSTM高出40%,在均方根误差(RMSE)、平均绝对误差(MAE)和平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)等指标方面比TCN-LSTM高出8%,同时将数据处理时间减少了30%。此外,该模型的参数数量比LSTM和GRU显著减少,使其适用于计算资源有限的环境。所提出的模型确保了高水平的能源消耗预测准确性,同时显著减少了处理时间,使其在实际能源系统中的应用前景广阔。