Liu Jin, Duan Yuansheng, Wang Yuxuan, Li Xinhua, Li Hao, Liu Xigang, Qiao Feng, Wu Yansheng, Wang Xudong
Department of Maxillofacial and Otorhinolaryngological Oncology, Key Laboratory of Basic and Translational Medicine on Head & Neck Cancer, Key Laboratory of Cancer Prevention and Therapy, Cancer Institute and Hospital, Tianjin Cancer Institute, National Clinical Research Center of Cancer, Tianjin Medical University, Tianjin, 300060, China.
Department of Maxillofacial Surgery, School of Stomatology, Tianjin Medical University, Tianjin, 300070, China.
BMC Cancer. 2025 Aug 5;25(1):1271. doi: 10.1186/s12885-025-14742-4.
Papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) is the most prevalent endocrine malignancy globally with a recurrence rate of up to 30%. Patients with lateral cervical metastasis (N1b PTC) are at a higher risk for reoperation. The aim of this study was to achieve a personalized assessment of recurrence risk in patients with N1b papillary thyroid carcinoma to better guide recurrence risk management.
This retrospective study included 558 patients with stage N1b papillary thyroid carcinoma. Independent risk factors for recurrence were identified using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression. These factors were used to develop a nomogram to predict the risk of recurrence.
Seven variables were selected to construct the nomogram. The risk factors from the training set were used to develop the nomogram, which was validated with independent test sets. Recurrence risk was dynamically assessed over time, enabling the creation of more personalized treatment and monitoring plans. The nomogram provided more accurate and individualized recurrence predictions than the 2015 American Thyroid Association recurrence risk stratification for patients with N1b papillary thyroid carcinoma.
Our nomogram effectively complements the 2015 American Thyroid Association recurrence risk stratification, providing a valuable tool for personalized patient management.
甲状腺乳头状癌（PTC）是全球最常见的内分泌恶性肿瘤，复发率高达30%。伴有侧颈淋巴结转移的患者（N1b PTC）再次手术的风险更高。本研究的目的是对N1b甲状腺乳头状癌患者的复发风险进行个性化评估，以更好地指导复发风险管理。
这项回顾性研究纳入了558例N1b期甲状腺乳头状癌患者。使用最小绝对收缩和选择算子回归确定复发的独立危险因素。这些因素用于开发列线图以预测复发风险。
选择了7个变量来构建列线图。来自训练集的危险因素用于开发列线图，并在独立测试集上进行验证。随着时间的推移动态评估复发风险，从而制定更个性化的治疗和监测计划。对于N1b甲状腺乳头状癌患者，列线图比2015年美国甲状腺协会复发风险分层提供了更准确和个性化的复发预测。
我们的列线图有效地补充了2015年美国甲状腺协会复发风险分层，为个性化患者管理提供了有价值的工具。
