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城市洪水韧性评估框架:整合多维指标与动态适应策略

A framework for urban flood resilience assessment: Integrating multidimensional indicators and dynamic adaptation strategies.

作者信息

Liu Yun, Jiang Yuxin, Deng Yongfei

机构信息

College of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Xinjiang University, Urmuqi, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, China.

出版信息

J Environ Manage. 2025 Sep;392:126841. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.126841. Epub 2025 Aug 6.

Abstract

Against the backdrop of global climate change and accelerated urbanization, the risk of urban flooding continues to rise. To address the flood risk prevention needs of megacities, this study takes four Chinese municipalities (Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, and Chongqing) as typical cases. It constructs a PSR-GRA-based urban flood resilience assessment framework by quantifying key indicators via the Pressure-State-Response (PSR) framework and scientifically calibrating parameters for pressure, state, and response dimensions using Grey Relational Analysis (GRA). The framework integrates structured and quantitative methodologies, covering the three stages of pressure, state, and response in the evolution of urban flood resilience, evaluating cities' capabilities to withstand flood impacts from extreme rainfall and rapidly restore normal urban operations. Using official data from the four cities spanning 2013-2023, comparison of the framework's assessment values with actual disaster scenarios reveals significant correlations between UFRI (Urban Flood Resilience Index) results and flood frequency/severity, confirming the PSR-GRA model's reliability and effectiveness. Assessment results show the four municipalities' UFRI all rose positively from 2013 to 2023, with distinct trajectories due to differences in geography, climate, and urban development models. To enhance assessment dynamics and practical guidance, adaptive management is integrated into the PSR-GRA model, establishing a "monitoring-assessment-response-feedback" closed-loop system for precise regulation of resilience improvement strategies. This validated framework provides a comprehensive, replicable approach for urban flood resilience evaluation and planning-particularly suitable for megacities' flood-prone areas, offering references for mitigating flood risks and strengthening urban planning to enhance long-term adaptability.

摘要

在全球气候变化和城市化加速的背景下,城市内涝风险持续上升。为满足特大城市的防洪风险防范需求,本研究以中国四个直辖市(北京、天津、上海和重庆)为典型案例。通过压力 - 状态 - 响应(PSR)框架对关键指标进行量化,并运用灰色关联分析(GRA)对压力、状态和响应维度的参数进行科学校准,构建了基于PSR - GRA的城市洪涝韧性评估框架。该框架整合了结构化和定量方法,涵盖城市洪涝韧性演变中的压力、状态和响应三个阶段,评估城市抵御极端降雨洪水影响并迅速恢复城市正常运行的能力。利用四个城市2013 - 2023年的官方数据,将框架评估值与实际灾害情景进行比较,结果表明城市洪涝韧性指数(UFRI)结果与洪水频率/严重程度之间存在显著相关性,证实了PSR - GRA模型的可靠性和有效性。评估结果显示,2013年至2023年四个直辖市的UFRI均呈正向上升趋势,由于地理、气候和城市发展模式的差异,其上升轨迹各不相同。为增强评估动态性和实际指导作用,将适应性管理纳入PSR - GRA模型,建立了“监测 - 评估 - 响应 - 反馈”闭环系统,以精确调整韧性提升策略。这一经过验证的框架为城市洪涝韧性评估和规划提供了全面、可复制的方法,尤其适用于特大城市的易涝地区,为减轻洪水风险和加强城市规划以提高长期适应性提供了参考。

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