Balsalobre-Lorente Daniel, Topaloglu Emre E, Nur Tugba, Pilař Ladislav
Department of Applied Economics I, University of Castilla-La Mancha, 13071, Cuenca, Spain; UNEC Research Methods Application Center, Azerbaijan State University of Economics (UNEC), Istiqlaliyyat Str. 6, Baku, 1001, Azerbaijan; Western Caspian University, Economic Research Center (WCERC), Baku, Azerbaijan.
Department of Finance, University of Sirnak, Sirnak, Turkiye.
J Environ Manage. 2025 Sep;392:126878. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.126878. Epub 2025 Aug 9.
The study examines the link between economic growth and environmental sustainability in advanced economies from 1994 to 2023 within the LCC (Load Capacity Curve) hypothesis framework. Additionally, the study investigates the moderating role of ICT and environmental taxes in the linkage between economic growth and the Load Capacity Factor (LCF). Second-generation panel data analysis methods, namely CUP-FM and BA-OLS techniques, were employed for coefficient estimation, and the MMQR method was applied to reveal the differing effects of variables at quantile levels. Empirical findings indicate a U-shaped link between LCF and economic growth, thereby validating the LCC hypothesis for advanced economies in the long term. Additionally, direct positive effects of ICT and environmental taxes on LCF were observed, and it was determined that the interactions between GDP and ICT, as well as between GDP and environmental taxes, are positively related to LCF. According to the MMQR analysis, the negative effect of economic growth on LCF is weaker in the lower quantiles and stronger in the higher quantiles. The impact of ICT and environmental taxes on LCF is negative in the lower quantiles and turns positive in the higher quantiles. The interaction between economic growth and ICT was positive across all quantiles, with the highest effect occurring in the 90th quantile. Similarly, the interaction between environmental taxes and economic growth was positive across all quantiles, with the most substantial impact observed in the 10th and the weakest in the 90th quantile. While the control variables of renewable energy consumption positively impact LCF in all quantiles, the effect of financial development is adverse in the lower quantiles and positive in the higher quantiles. The findings underscore the importance of integrating growth, finance, digitalization, taxation, and energy policies to safeguard environmental capacity and promote sustainability in advanced economies.
该研究在负荷能力曲线(LCC)假设框架内,考察了1994年至2023年发达经济体中经济增长与环境可持续性之间的联系。此外,该研究还调查了信息通信技术(ICT)和环境税在经济增长与负荷能力因子(LCF)之间联系中的调节作用。采用了第二代面板数据分析方法,即CUP-FM和BA-OLS技术进行系数估计,并应用MMQR方法来揭示变量在分位数水平上的不同影响。实证结果表明,LCF与经济增长之间存在U型联系,从而从长期验证了发达经济体的LCC假设。此外,观察到ICT和环境税对LCF有直接的正向影响,并确定GDP与ICT之间以及GDP与环境税之间的相互作用与LCF呈正相关。根据MMQR分析,经济增长对LCF的负面影响在较低分位数中较弱,而在较高分位数中较强。ICT和环境税对LCF的影响在较低分位数中为负,而在较高分位数中变为正。经济增长与ICT之间的相互作用在所有分位数上均为正,在第90分位数处影响最大。同样,环境税与经济增长之间的相互作用在所有分位数上均为正,在第10分位数处影响最为显著,而在第90分位数处影响最弱。虽然可再生能源消费的控制变量在所有分位数上对LCF都有正向影响,但金融发展的影响在较低分位数中是负面的,而在较高分位数中是正面的。研究结果强调了整合增长、金融、数字化、税收和能源政策对于保障发达经济体环境容量和促进可持续性的重要性。