Richard J L, Ducimetière P, Bonnaud G, Claude J R, Lellouch J, Schwartz D, Di Mattéo J
Arch Mal Coeur Vaiss. 1977 May;70(5):531-40.
The Paris prospective study in an epidemiological study of 7,453 middle-aged men born in France, and initially free from ischaemic heart disease. The current mean follow-up time is 4 years. The mean annual incidence is 5.1 per 1000, which is about one half that found in similar american studies. This incidence is related to the cholesterol level, to the blood pressure, to cigarette consumption when the smoke is inhaled, to diabetes mellitus, and to major abnormalities on the electrocardiogram. These five factors are mutually independant in their prediction of the risk of future illness. A formula has been derived by statistical analysis, and takes these five factors into account: the incidence of illness rises exponentially as a function of this formula. New cases of ischaemic heart disease are distributed, but with a very patchy incidence, in this population, of which only a very small number remain disease-free. A table has been drawn up to show the probability of a middle aged male contracting ischeamic heart disease within 4 years, and takes the 5 factors into account: this probability varies between 0.5 per cent and 34 per cent.
巴黎前瞻性研究是一项针对7453名出生于法国、最初无缺血性心脏病的中年男性进行的流行病学研究。目前的平均随访时间为4年。平均年发病率为每1000人中有5.1例，约为美国类似研究中发病率的一半。这种发病率与胆固醇水平、血压、吸入烟雾时的香烟消费量、糖尿病以及心电图上的主要异常有关。这五个因素在预测未来患病风险时相互独立。通过统计分析得出了一个公式，该公式考虑了这五个因素：疾病的发病率随着这个公式呈指数上升。缺血性心脏病的新病例在该人群中分布，但发病率非常不均匀，其中只有极少数人仍无疾病。已绘制了一个表格，以显示中年男性在4年内患缺血性心脏病的概率，并考虑了这五个因素：该概率在0.5%至34%之间变化。
