Winiger Evan A, Lizhnyak Pavel N, Drenkard Scott W, Vansickel Andrea R
Altria Center for Research & Technology, Altria Client Services LLC, Richmond, Virginia.
AJPM Focus. 2025 May 9;4(5):100364. doi: 10.1016/j.focus.2025.100364. eCollection 2025 Oct.
In June of 2020, Massachusetts became the first state to implement a statewide ban on flavored tobacco. To date, no study has analyzed the behavioral outcomes of a comprehensive statewide ban on flavored tobacco products among representative state samples of adults aged ≥21 years.
Using a difference-in-difference model from repeated cross-sectional data (Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System), the authors compared cigarette smoking prevalence in Massachusetts before (January 2017-May 2020) with that after (June 2020-December 2022) the implementation of a flavor ban, with 35 states serving as a comparison. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to ensure the robustness of the difference-in-difference findings.
There was a consistent decline in smoking prevalence in Massachusetts (14.1% in 2017 to 10.7% in 2022) and comparator states (18.5% in 2017 to 14.8% in 2022). When adjusting for sociodemographic and the year-fixed effect, the analysis indicated significant effects of time (AOR=1.05; 95% CI=1.00, 1.11, =0.0428) and treatment (AOR=0.89; 95% CI=0.84, 0.95, =0.0002) but not for the difference-in-difference estimate (AOR=0.94; 95% CI=0.85, 1.03, =0.1621).
The results indicate that the comprehensive flavor ban in Massachusetts did not significantly impact smoking prevalence relative to that in comparator states without flavor bans.
2020年6月,马萨诸塞州成为首个在全州范围内实施调味烟草禁令的州。迄今为止,尚无研究分析在全州范围内全面禁止调味烟草产品对21岁及以上成年人代表性样本的行为结果。
作者使用重复横断面数据(行为风险因素监测系统)中的差异-差异模型,比较了马萨诸塞州在实施调味禁令之前(2017年1月至2020年5月)和之后(2020年6月至2022年12月)的吸烟流行率,并以35个州作为对照。进行了敏感性分析以确保差异-差异结果的稳健性。
马萨诸塞州(从2017年的14.1%降至2022年的10.7%)和对照州(从2017年的18.5%降至2022年的14.8%)的吸烟流行率均持续下降。在调整社会人口统计学和年份固定效应后,分析表明时间有显著影响(比值比=1.05;95%置信区间=1.00,1.11,P=0.0428)和处理有显著影响(比值比=0.89;95%置信区间=0.84,0.95,P=0.0002),但差异-差异估计无显著影响(比值比=0.94;95%置信区间=0.85,1.03,P=0.1621)。
结果表明,相对于没有调味禁令的对照州,马萨诸塞州的全面调味禁令对吸烟流行率没有显著影响。