城市新陈代谢的随机理论。

A stochastic theory of urban metabolism.

作者信息

Hendrick Martin, Rinaldo Andrea, Manoli Gabriele

机构信息

Laboratory of Urban and Environmental Systems, School of Architecture, Civil and Environmental Engineering, École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, Lausanne 1015, Switzerland.

Laboratory of Ecohydrology, School of Architecture, Civil and Environmental Engineering, École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, Lausanne 1015.

出版信息

Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2025 Aug 19;122(33):e2501224122. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2501224122. Epub 2025 Aug 11.

Abstract

A current tenet in the science of cities is the emergence of power-law relations between population size and a variety of urban indicators, echoing allometric scaling in living organisms akin to Kleiber's law. However fascinating, existing scaling theories suffer from biases related to the ad-hoc definition of city boundaries and to their neglect of intraurban variability of city properties. Here, to deal rigorously with biases, we explore the hypothesis that the empirical statistics of intracity variations in population counts, road networks, and carbon emissions-across various cities and spatial scales-can be interpreted as resulting from the joint fluctuations of spatially dependent random variables. Rather than relating urban characteristics to overall city size, we focus on how intraurban properties and local population patterns vary together across space. We find that the marginal and joint probability distributions are characterized by finite-size scaling functions which, upon suitable rescaling, collapse onto a set of universal curves. These results are analogous to those relating intraspecies variability in living organisms where the scaling of mean body mass with a characteristic metabolic rate clouds the effects of the variance of both traits. Our findings lay the foundations for a generalized theory of urban metabolism, linking city-scale quantities to the covariation of intraurban characteristics. This also opens up opportunities for a full exploitation of available urban data allowing the integration of biologically inspired theories into the modeling and planning of cities.

摘要

城市科学中的一个当前信条是,人口规模与各种城市指标之间出现了幂律关系,这与生物体中的异速生长缩放类似,类似于克莱伯定律。尽管现有缩放理论很有趣,但它们存在与城市边界的特设定义以及对城市属性的城市内部变异性的忽视相关的偏差。在这里,为了严格处理偏差,我们探讨了这样一种假设,即跨不同城市和空间尺度的人口计数、道路网络和碳排放的城市内部变化的经验统计可以解释为空间相关随机变量的联合波动的结果。我们不是将城市特征与城市整体规模联系起来,而是关注城市内部属性和当地人口模式如何在空间上共同变化。我们发现,边际和联合概率分布由有限大小的缩放函数表征,经过适当的重新缩放后,这些函数会坍缩到一组通用曲线上。这些结果类似于与生物体内物种内变异性相关的结果,在生物体内,平均体重与特征代谢率的缩放掩盖了这两个特征方差的影响。我们的发现为城市新陈代谢的广义理论奠定了基础,将城市规模的数量与城市内部特征的协变联系起来。这也为充分利用可用的城市数据提供了机会,从而能够将受生物学启发的理论整合到城市建模和规划中。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/dd74/12377725/91c71a84b8ec/pnas.2501224122fig01.jpg

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