Differential pathways from personality to risk-taking: how extraversion and negative emotionality shape decision-making through overconfidence.

INTRODUCTION

Understanding mechanisms through which personality traits influence risk decision-making remains crucial in behavioral research. This study examined overconfidence as a mediator in personality-risk relationships, focusing on Extraversion and Negative Emotionality.

METHODS

We recruited 110 university students to complete the Game of Dice Task, Big Five Inventory-2, and General Knowledge Questionnaire. Mediation analyses using bootstrapping methods examined direct and indirect effects with demographic controls.

RESULTS

Mediation analyses revealed distinct patterns. Extraversion demonstrated partial mediation through overconfidence (indirect effect: β = 0.101, 95% CI [0.012, 0.228]), explaining 20.5% of the total effect. Negative Emotionality showed complete mediation through overconfidence (indirect effect: β = -0.216, 95% CI [-0.364, -0.091]), accounting for 72.8% of the total effect. The models explained 29.4% and 22.9% of variance respectively.

DISCUSSION

These findings demonstrate that personality traits influence risk decisions through distinct pathways: Extraversion operates through both direct behavioral tendencies and cognitive biases, while Negative Emotionality primarily influences risk behavior through confidence calibration. Results provide implications for theoretical development and practical interventions, suggesting personality-tailored approaches to risk management.