Sagol School of Neuroscience, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel.
Department of Neurobiology, The George S. Wise Faculty of Life Sciences, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel.
Nature. 2020 Jun;582(7810):84-88. doi: 10.1038/s41586-020-2314-9. Epub 2020 May 20.
Data analysis workflows in many scientific domains have become increasingly complex and flexible. Here we assess the effect of this flexibility on the results of functional magnetic resonance imaging by asking 70 independent teams to analyse the same dataset, testing the same 9 ex-ante hypotheses. The flexibility of analytical approaches is exemplified by the fact that no two teams chose identical workflows to analyse the data. This flexibility resulted in sizeable variation in the results of hypothesis tests, even for teams whose statistical maps were highly correlated at intermediate stages of the analysis pipeline. Variation in reported results was related to several aspects of analysis methodology. Notably, a meta-analytical approach that aggregated information across teams yielded a significant consensus in activated regions. Furthermore, prediction markets of researchers in the field revealed an overestimation of the likelihood of significant findings, even by researchers with direct knowledge of the dataset. Our findings show that analytical flexibility can have substantial effects on scientific conclusions, and identify factors that may be related to variability in the analysis of functional magnetic resonance imaging. The results emphasize the importance of validating and sharing complex analysis workflows, and demonstrate the need for performing and reporting multiple analyses of the same data. Potential approaches that could be used to mitigate issues related to analytical variability are discussed.
在许多科学领域,数据分析工作流程变得越来越复杂和灵活。在这里,我们通过要求 70 个独立团队分析相同的数据集来评估这种灵活性对功能磁共振成像结果的影响,同时测试相同的 9 个事前假设。分析方法的灵活性体现在这样一个事实上,没有两个团队选择相同的工作流程来分析数据。这种灵活性导致假设检验的结果存在很大差异,即使对于那些在分析管道的中间阶段统计图谱高度相关的团队也是如此。报告结果的差异与分析方法的几个方面有关。值得注意的是,一种跨团队汇总信息的元分析方法在激活区域产生了显著的共识。此外,该领域研究人员的预测市场显示,即使是对数据集有直接了解的研究人员,也高估了发现显著结果的可能性。我们的研究结果表明,分析灵活性可能对科学结论产生重大影响,并确定了可能与功能磁共振成像分析中的变异性有关的因素。结果强调了验证和共享复杂分析工作流程的重要性,并证明了对相同数据进行多次分析和报告的必要性。讨论了可能用于减轻与分析可变性相关问题的潜在方法。